# Will Venezuela hold a presidential election before Jun 1, 2026

> Before Jun 1, 2027 leads at 31%, runner-up 3% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/electvenezuela
Updated: 2026-08-10T07:20:52.217Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-06-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jun 1, 2027 at 31%
- Runner-up: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jun 1, 2027 | 31¢ | −1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-venezuela-hold-a-presidential-election-before-kalshi-kxelectvenezuela-27jun01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-venezuela-hold-a-presidential-election-before-kalshi-kxelectvenezuela-27jan01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jun 1, 2027 | Before Jan 1, 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | 34 | — |
| 2026-07-16 | — | 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | — | 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | 36 | — |
| 2026-08-01 | 31 | — |
| 2026-08-09 | 31 | 3 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Venezuela will hold a presidential election before June 1, 2027—a span of roughly 12 months from now. At 45%, it indicates meaningful uncertainty about whether the government will proceed with scheduled elections or delay them. Key factors driving this level include the political instability following Venezuela's disputed 2024 elections, international pressure for democratic processes, and the government's recent track record of postponing or heavily controlling electoral timelines. The most immediate catalyst is whether the National Electoral Council announces a confirmed date and begins logistical preparations in the coming months. Market pricing reflects genuine doubt: shorter timeframes like September 2026 trade much lower (3¢), suggesting traders view imminent elections as unlikely, while the January 2027 outcome at 12¢ indicates the window is being priced as moderately unlikely even with more time.

### Key factors

- The Venezuelan government's demonstrated willingness to delay or postpone elections since the contested 2024 presidential vote, versus international pressure and opposition demands for timely electoral processes
- Confirmation or announcement by Venezuela's National Electoral Council (CNE) of specific election dates and administrative preparations, which would be a concrete signal of intent to proceed
- Economic and security conditions within Venezuela that could either trigger government decisions to hold elections or create instability that leads to postponement
- The degree of international observation and pressure from regional organizations and foreign governments, which may influence the timeline
- Recent statements or policy signals from Venezuelan government leadership regarding their electoral calendar and intentions for 2026-2027

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/electvenezuela
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=electvenezuela
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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