# Will over 1.5 goals be scored

> Closed. Last odds frozen 5 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/eliteserientotal
Updated: 2026-07-21T19:20:51.519Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-08-05

## Headline

- Probability: 56% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $83

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals scored | 93¢ | — | $83 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-05-goals-be-scored-over-05-goals-scored-kalshi-kxeliteserientotal-26jul22boghak-1 |
| Over 1.5 goals scored | 89¢ | +30pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-15-goals-be-scored-over-15-goals-scored-kalshi-kxeliteserientotal-26jul22boghak-2 |
| Over 2.5 goals scored | 76¢ | +24pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-25-goals-be-scored-over-25-goals-scored-kalshi-kxeliteserientotal-26jul22boghak-3 |
| Over 3.5 goals scored | 55¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-35-goals-be-scored-over-35-goals-scored-kalshi-kxeliteserientotal-26jul22boghak-4 |
| Over 4.5 goals scored | 37¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-45-goals-be-scored-over-45-goals-scored-kalshi-kxeliteserientotal-26jul22boghak-5 |
| Over 5.5 goals scored | 20¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-55-goals-be-scored-over-55-goals-scored-kalshi-kxeliteserientotal-26jul22boghak-6 |
| Over 0.5 goals scored | 91¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-05-goals-be-scored-over-05-goals-scored-kalshi-kxeliteserientotal-26jul22lskvik-1 |
| Over 1.5 goals scored | 82¢ | +13pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-15-goals-be-scored-over-15-goals-scored-kalshi-kxeliteserientotal-26jul22lskvik-2 |
| Over 2.5 goals scored | 60¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-25-goals-be-scored-over-25-goals-scored-kalshi-kxeliteserientotal-26jul22lskvik-3 |
| Over 3.5 goals scored | 40¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-35-goals-be-scored-over-35-goals-scored-kalshi-kxeliteserientotal-26jul22lskvik-4 |
| Over 4.5 goals scored | 21¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-45-goals-be-scored-over-45-goals-scored-kalshi-kxeliteserientotal-26jul22lskvik-5 |
| Over 5.5 goals scored | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-55-goals-be-scored-over-55-goals-scored-kalshi-kxeliteserientotal-26jul22lskvik-6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | 42 |
| 2026-07-20 | 48 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-20 · Over 1.5 goals scored +30pp 59→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-20 · Over 2.5 goals scored +24pp 50→74¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-20 · Over 1.5 goals scored +13pp 69→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-20 · Over 3.5 goals scored +11pp 43→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-20 · Over 4.5 goals scored +9pp 26→35¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 6% probability that more than 1.5 goals will be scored in an upcoming match. The extremely low probability suggests expectations of either a low-scoring contest, defensive matchups, or teams with limited offensive capability. Market participants are pricing in a strong likelihood of 0-1 goals total. Key drivers include team form, defensive strength, and recent scoring patterns. The resolution depends on the actual goal count when the match concludes. The 0.5-goal contract trading at 22¢ (versus 17¢ for over 1.5) indicates moderately elevated odds of at least one goal being scored, but a sharp drop-off in probability once crossing the 1.5 threshold suggests minimal confidence in higher-scoring outcomes.

### Key factors

- Recent head-to-head records between the teams show a trend toward low-scoring matches or defensive play
- Combined team offensive output this season is below average compared to peers in their competition
- Defensive injuries, suspensions, or tactical shifts announced in the week preceding the match could shift expectations
- The spread between 0.5 and 1.5 goal probabilities (22¢ vs 17¢) indicates market consensus clusters around 0-1 goal range rather than 2+
- Weather conditions, venue characteristics, or match timing (e.g., early season fixture) may constrain typical scoring patterns

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/eliteserientotal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=eliteserientotal

## License

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