# Elon Musk musk # tweets in April 2026 — 1160-1199

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 17% across 10 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/elon-musk-musk-tweets-april
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.983Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 17% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 18% / Polymarket 16% — 2pp spread
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 740-759 | 7¢ | ±0 | $1K | polymarket | /markets/elon-musk-musk-tweets-in-may-2026-740-759-polymarket-0x187cacb4f8c5fa9431b8abafe271db19a3f064fe6fa32e3b0d894170b09d1c2d |
| 780-799 | 7¢ | +1pp | $760 | polymarket | /markets/elon-musk-musk-tweets-in-may-2026-780-799-polymarket-0x204594f80ea51049f285bf770c43864b1f966d12c308cefa4d26c2a8f9f64196 |
| 800-839 | 10¢ | −1pp | $697 | polymarket | /markets/elon-musk-musk-tweets-in-may-2026-800-839-polymarket-0x11a78aebb5a769ff8ac6b2cb61b4d5138c4de9aa6e398197ab9d1d37a3886db9 |
| Elon Musk | 18¢ | −5pp | $453 | kalshi | /markets/will-elon-musk-visit-new-york-city-before-jun-1-20-kalshi-kxvisitnyc-26jun01-emusnyc |
| 760-779 | 8¢ | +2pp | $446 | polymarket | /markets/elon-musk-musk-tweets-in-may-2026-760-779-polymarket-0xf2b24f5d11c1e419de1405d295b6d383eef9d432d6609c9e69113aadde709b37 |
| 920-959 | 6¢ | −1pp | $444 | polymarket | /markets/elon-musk-musk-tweets-in-may-2026-920-959-polymarket-0xda7e6bec00eb62d8a4cd40c2dec6c8fdf0dca05eb38f6adc09d40f20cd37d5d0 |
| 960-999 | 4¢ | −1pp | $253 | polymarket | /markets/elon-musk-musk-tweets-in-may-2026-960-999-polymarket-0xc1650829f01af35069bd4a10ad606b1bbca1682aa5d2f4aa5f6fe668a0b8ed0d |
| 880-919 | 7¢ | −2pp | $143 | polymarket | /markets/elon-musk-musk-tweets-in-may-2026-880-919-polymarket-0x0259d891dd9a812dcabac2d1eca28de01d92980d4116f1f1c6d89083f57e6801 |
| 840-879 | 8¢ | −2pp | $135 | polymarket | /markets/elon-musk-musk-tweets-in-may-2026-840-879-polymarket-0xa5144cd6a61ad9fe20f4a095a2548cd8e5e3d30f3c378843b451f804a1e10cd9 |
| Elon Musk | 90¢ | +3pp | $18 | polymarket | /markets/richest-person-on-december-31-2026-elon-musk-polymarket-0x01529e40f3b4cdf5eafe074adfe1bb9c152d57747ad93b7a87d3823d5d4d608f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 51 |
| 2026-04-25 | 16 |
| 2026-05-02 | 5 |
| 2026-05-08 | 8 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · 740-759 −12pp 14→2¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · 800-839 +6pp 5→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Elon Musk −5pp 29→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · 840-879 +4pp 6→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · 740-759 +3pp 3→6¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects whether Elon Musk will post between 1,160 and 1,199 tweets during April 2026. The sharp disagreement between Kalshi (38%) and Polymarket (12%) suggests uncertainty about Musk's tweeting behavior this month. The lower Polymarket probability aligns with the top contracts clustering heavily in the 1,040–1,119 range, indicating markets expect lower activity. The main drivers are Musk's actual tweeting pace throughout April and whether major events (Tesla announcements, X platform developments, or external news) trigger increased posting. Since April ends April 30, 2026, the final tweet count will resolve completely on that date, leaving limited time for late-month surprises. The 26 percentage-point venue gap reflects genuine disagreement about whether Musk's recent behavior supports the 1,160+ threshold or whether lower bins (1,040–1,079 range) are more likely.

### Key factors

- Musk's tweet volume through late April 2026 will be observable and counted; markets currently price the 1,040–1,079 bracket at 74 cents, suggesting lower activity is the consensus expectation
- The significant venue divergence (Kalshi 38% vs. Polymarket 12%) indicates genuine disagreement about whether 1,160+ tweets is plausible given his recent patterns
- High liquidity in the 1,040–1,119 contracts ($95k+ 24h volume) suggests these brackets absorb most market conviction, leaving the 1,160–1,199 range relatively unlikely
- The narrow 40-tweet window (1,160–1,199) is a precise target that requires Musk to sustain daily tweeting above ~38–39 posts per day for the full month
- April 30, 2026 provides a hard resolution date; no ongoing catalyst or announcement cycle is typically scheduled for that period that would inflate activity

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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