# Elon Musk Net Worth on April 30 — 670b+

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 34% across 1 contract — refreshed 57 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/elon-musk-net-worth-april-30
Updated: 2026-06-26T12:20:49.197Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 34% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| More than $1.4 trillion | 34¢ | −5pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-musk-have-a-net-worth-more-than-1400-billion-kalshi-kxmuskwealth-27-1400 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 35 |
| 2026-06-12 | 47 |
| 2026-06-19 | 66 |
| 2026-06-26 | 33 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · More than $1.4 trillion −16pp 50→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · More than $1.4 trillion −10pp 66→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · More than $1.4 trillion +9pp 29→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · More than $1.4 trillion −7pp 57→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · More than $1.4 trillion −5pp 34→29¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 28% probability that Elon Musk's net worth will exceed $670 billion by April 30, 2026—just two days away. The probability reflects uncertainty about Tesla's stock price movement and broader market conditions in the final days before settlement. Musk's wealth is primarily concentrated in Tesla equity, so the outcome hinges almost entirely on where Tesla shares trade by market close on April 30. The cross-venue gap suggests traders on Kalshi (34% average) view the threshold as more achievable than those on Polymarket (18% average), likely reflecting different interpretations of recent Tesla price action and end-of-month volatility patterns. With resolution occurring in 48 hours, any significant market movements or company announcements could substantially shift probabilities in the final trading session.

### Key factors

- Tesla stock price on April 29-30, 2026 and intraday volatility patterns will directly determine whether Musk's net worth crosses $670 billion
- The current market price of Tesla shares relative to historical valuations of Musk's known equity holdings determines the baseline net worth calculation
- Any earnings announcements, regulatory filings, or major company news released between now and April 30 could create price momentum in either direction
- The 16 percentage-point gap between venues suggests disagreement about whether recent Tesla trading patterns favor the higher threshold
- Settlement will depend on publicly available net worth estimates from recognized financial data providers on or around April 30

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/elon-musk-net-worth-april-30
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=elon-musk-net-worth-april-30

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.