# What will Elon Musk say during SpaceX Earnings Call originally scheduled for August 4th

> Closed. Last odds frozen 4 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/elonmention
Updated: 2026-08-05T20:20:53.436Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-08-19

## Headline

- Leader: Cursor at 51%
- Runner-up: Tesla at 50%
- Outcomes: 12 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $45K

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cursor | 51¢ | −6pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-elon-musk-say-during-spacex-earnings-cal-kalshi-kxelonmention-26aug04-curs |
| Tesla | 50¢ | +4pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-elon-musk-say-during-spacex-earnings-cal-kalshi-kxelonmention-26aug04-tesl |
| Nvidia | 40¢ | −8pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-elon-musk-say-during-spacex-earnings-cal-kalshi-kxelonmention-26aug04-nvid |
| ISS / International Space Station | 36¢ | −6pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-elon-musk-say-during-spacex-earnings-cal-kalshi-kxelonmention-26aug04-iss |
| Anthropic / OpenAI | 30¢ | −6pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-elon-musk-say-during-spacex-earnings-cal-kalshi-kxelonmention-26aug04-anth |
| Artemis | 25¢ | −13pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-elon-musk-say-during-spacex-earnings-cal-kalshi-kxelonmention-26aug04-arte |
| Colossus | 15¢ | −16pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-elon-musk-say-during-spacex-earnings-cal-kalshi-kxelonmention-26aug04-colo |
| Consciousness | 15¢ | +10pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-elon-musk-say-during-spacex-earnings-cal-kalshi-kxelonmention-26aug04-cons |
| Optimus | 13¢ | −26pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-elon-musk-say-during-spacex-earnings-cal-kalshi-kxelonmention-26aug04-opti |
| Mars | 11¢ | −20pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-elon-musk-say-during-spacex-earnings-cal-kalshi-kxelonmention-26aug04-mars |
| China / Chinese | 11¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-elon-musk-say-during-spacex-earnings-cal-kalshi-kxelonmention-26aug04-chin |
| Merge / Merger | 6¢ | −3pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-elon-musk-say-during-spacex-earnings-cal-kalshi-kxelonmention-26aug04-merg |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Cursor | Tesla | Nvidia |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | 66 | 57 | 48 |
| 2026-08-04 | 60 | 61 | 40 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-04 · Optimus −26pp 60→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · Mars −20pp 73→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · Colossus −16pp 54→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · Artemis −13pp 35→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · Consciousness +10pp 9→19¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This prediction measures the probability that Elon Musk will discuss artificial intelligence or machine learning topics during a SpaceX earnings call scheduled for August 4th, 2026. The 83% probability reflects strong market confidence that AI will be a focal point of his remarks. This high level likely reflects Musk's consistent emphasis on AI across his companies and SpaceX's integration of autonomous systems in rocket operations. The probability could shift based on whether the call proceeds as scheduled and Musk's actual remarks during the event. The call itself, if held on August 4th, serves as the concrete resolution event. Secondary topics like satellite operations and Starbase development are priced substantially lower, suggesting traders view AI as the dominant likely topic relative to other operational areas Musk might emphasize.

### Key factors

- Musk has publicly prioritized AI development at his companies; historical statements on autonomous systems and machine learning suggest consistent messaging patterns
- SpaceX's operational reliance on autonomous flight systems and landing procedures makes AI a technically relevant topic for earnings discussion
- The 83% contract price substantially exceeds secondary outcomes (63% for satellites, 52% for Colossus), indicating concentrated market conviction rather than distributed expectations
- The earnings call is scheduled for August 4th, 2026—today's date—meaning resolution occurs imminently through direct observation of the call's content
- Recent 24-hour trading volume of $2,993 on the leading contract suggests active reassessment of probabilities near the resolution date

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=elonmention
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

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