# Will the Fed cut rates 2 times at emergency meetings

> 0 cuts leads at 91%, runner-up 5% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emercuts
Updated: 2026-06-26T12:20:51.180Z
Category: economy · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: 0 cuts at 91%
- Runner-up: 1 cuts at 5%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 cuts | 91¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fed-cut-rates-0-times-at-emergency-meetin-kalshi-kxemercuts-26-t0 |
| 1 cuts | 5¢ | +2pp | $265 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fed-cut-rates-1-times-at-emergency-meetin-kalshi-kxemercuts-26-t1 |
| 2 cuts | 3¢ | −1pp | $165 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fed-cut-rates-2-times-at-emergency-meetin-kalshi-kxemercuts-26-t2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 0 cuts | 1 cuts | 2 cuts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | — | 6 | — |
| 2026-05-29 | 83 | 5 | 6 |
| 2026-06-13 | 90 | — | — |
| 2026-06-14 | 90 | 4 | — |
| 2026-06-16 | 91 | 4 | — |
| 2026-06-17 | — | 3 | 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | — | 4 | 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | — | 5 | 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | — | — | 3 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates an 84% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice at unscheduled emergency meetings before the end of 2026. The high probability reflects market expectations of significant economic deterioration or financial stress severe enough to trigger extraordinary policy action outside the Fed's regular meeting schedule. Typical drivers would be recession signals, labor market collapse, or financial instability. The market contrasts sharply with related contracts showing only 46% probability of any rate cuts by year-end and 54% probability of zero cuts, suggesting traders see emergency cuts as more likely than gradual easing in normal meetings. The next scheduled Fed meeting is June 17-18, 2026, though emergency action could occur anytime if conditions warrant. Key upcoming data points include employment reports, inflation metrics, and any financial market stress signals through mid-2026.

### Key factors

- The 84% probability for emergency cuts conflicts with only 46% probability for any cuts by year-end, indicating markets price emergency action as more likely than standard policy easing
- Related contracts show 54% odds of zero rate cuts all year, creating logical tension with 84% odds of two emergency cuts specifically
- June 2026 meeting contract shows only 4¢ ($0.04) implied probability of a 25bps cut at the scheduled meeting, suggesting markets expect emergency action outside regular calendars
- Volume concentration in the 46¢ general-cuts contract ($4,734 24h vol) vastly exceeds contracts for specific emergency scenarios ($2,339 vol on zero-cuts), indicating lower conviction among traders on emergency-meeting specifications
- Economic data through May 2026 would need to show substantial deterioration or financial instability to justify emergency Fed action, which remains outside baseline forecast scenarios

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emercuts
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=emercuts
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

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