# Will Michael J. Fox win Outstanding Guest Actor In A Comedy Series at the Emmy Awards

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 29% across 15 contracts — refreshed 29 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmy
Updated: 2026-08-27T15:20:52.002Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-09-14

## Headline

- Probability: 29% (liquidity-weighted across 15 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tie | 4¢ | −3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-outstanding-variety-series-at-the-emm-kalshi-kxemmy-vs26sep14-tie |
| Love Is Blind | 4¢ | −2pp | $627 | kalshi | /markets/will-love-is-blind-win-outstanding-structured-real-kalshi-kxemmy-srp26sep14-lov |
| Widow’s Bay | 36¢ | +2pp | $402 | kalshi | /markets/will-widows-bay-win-outstanding-writing-for-a-come-kalshi-kxemmy-owcs26sep14-wid |
| Hiro Murai | 73¢ | −1pp | $333 | kalshi | /markets/will-hiro-murai-win-outstanding-directing-for-a-co-kalshi-kxemmy-out26sep14-hir |
| Betty Gilpin | 37¢ | +1pp | $300 | kalshi | /markets/will-betty-gilpin-win-outstanding-guest-actress-in-kalshi-kxemmy-gaciacs26sep14-bet |
| Alan Cumming | 72¢ | ±0 | $234 | kalshi | /markets/will-alan-cumming-win-outstanding-host-for-a-reali-kalshi-kxemmy-host26sep14-ala |
| Colman Domingo | 39¢ | −2pp | $232 | kalshi | /markets/will-colman-domingo-win-outstanding-guest-actor-in-kalshi-kxemmy-gads26sep14-col |
| Desi Lydic Foxsplains win Outstanding Short Form Comedy, Drama Or Variety Series at the Emmy Awards?: The Daily Show: Desi Lydic Foxsplains | 14¢ | ±0 | $200 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-daily-show-desi-lydic-foxsplains-win-outs-kalshi-kxemmy-sfcdv26sep14-dai |
| Jeff Probst | 7¢ | +1pp | $200 | kalshi | /markets/will-jeff-probst-win-outstanding-host-for-a-realit-kalshi-kxemmy-host26sep14-jef |
| The Late Show with Stephen Colbert | 77¢ | +2pp | $174 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-late-show-with-stephen-colbert-win-outsta-kalshi-kxemmy-vs26sep14-lat |
| Shailene Woodley | 52¢ | −2pp | $120 | kalshi | /markets/will-shailene-woodley-win-outstanding-guest-actres-kalshi-kxemmy-gacds26sep14-sha |
| Lauren Weedman | 4¢ | −5pp | $118 | kalshi | /markets/will-lauren-weedman-win-outstanding-guest-actress-kalshi-kxemmy-gaciacs26sep14-laur |
| Jamie Lee Curtis | 7¢ | −1pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-jamie-lee-curtis-win-outstanding-guest-actres-kalshi-kxemmy-gaciacs26sep14-jam |
| Ernest Harden, Jr. | 10¢ | −1pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-ernest-harden-jr-win-outstanding-guest-actor-kalshi-kxemmy-gads26sep14-ern |
| Survivor | 5¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-survivor-win-outstanding-reality-competition-kalshi-kxemmy-rcp26sep14-sur |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | 18 |
| 2026-08-20 | 37 |
| 2026-08-27 | 35 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-23 · Alan Cumming +12pp 59→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Hiro Murai +10pp 52→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · The Late Show with Stephen Colbert +9pp 58→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Jeff Probst −8pp 11→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Widow’s Bay +7pp 24→31¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This reflects a 6% estimated probability that Michael J. Fox will win the Emmy Award for Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series. The low probability suggests market participants view him as a longshot relative to other contenders. Fox's actual Emmy eligibility depends on his specific guest appearances during the voting period, his role prominence, and how his candidacy stacks against an established field of recurring or guest performers in comedy. The Emmy Awards ceremony scheduled for September 2026 will determine the winner, resolving this market. Prior to that, the official Emmy nominee announcement will clarify whether Fox receives a nomination at all—a critical data point that would substantially shift expectations. Guest acting categories typically feature strong competition from established character actors with recent high-profile appearances.

### Key factors

- Fox's specific guest appearances and screen time during the 2025-2026 voting period determine basic eligibility
- Competition from other guest actors with recent, prominent roles in comedies likely influences the relative 6% baseline
- Official Emmy nomination announcement before the September 2026 ceremony will provide definitive information about Fox's candidacy
- Historical voting patterns in this category and the size of the eligible nominee pool affect probability calculus
- Fox's name recognition and career legacy may influence voter perception independently of recent comedy work

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmy
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=emmy

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.