# Will Quinta Brunson win Comedy Actress at the Emmy Awards

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 16% across 6 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmycactr
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:38.483Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-09-14

## Headline

- Probability: 16% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Smart | 53¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jean-smart-win-comedy-actress-at-the-emmy-awa-kalshi-kxemmycactr-26sep14-jea |
| Lisa Kudrow | 19¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lisa-kudrow-win-comedy-actress-at-the-emmy-aw-kalshi-kxemmycactr-26sep14-lisa |
| Quinta Brunson | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-quinta-brunson-win-comedy-actress-at-the-emmy-kalshi-kxemmycactr-26sep14-qui |
| Kristen Bell | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kristen-bell-win-comedy-actress-at-the-emmy-a-kalshi-kxemmycactr-26sep14-kri |
| Elle Fanning | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-elle-fanning-win-comedy-actress-at-the-emmy-a-kalshi-kxemmycactr-26sep14-ell |
| Tie | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-comedy-actress-at-the-emmy-awards-tie-kalshi-kxemmycactr-26sep14-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | 72 |
| 2026-04-25 | 36 |
| 2026-05-02 | 27 |
| 2026-05-08 | 20 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Lisa Kudrow +9pp 11→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Jean Smart +4pp 59→63¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the market's current estimate that Quinta Brunson will win the Emmy Award for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 Emmy Awards ceremony. At 17%, the prediction reflects moderate uncertainty about her chances compared to other potential nominees and winners in this category. The probability is influenced by her recent performance history and critical reception in her roles, as well as the broader competitive field of actresses who may receive nominations. The Emmy Awards ceremony in September 2026 will be the decisive event that resolves this question, with the official nomination announcements occurring earlier in the summer serving as an important intermediate indicator of her actual nomination status and competitive positioning.

### Key factors

- Quinta Brunson's nomination status and category placement in the official 2026 Emmy nominations (announced summer 2026)
- Comparative strength of competing actresses nominated in the same category and their respective campaign visibility
- Her eligibility based on episode air dates and production requirements for the 2025-2026 television season
- Critical reception and award precedent for her specific role or project in the eligible period
- Historical voting patterns in the Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series category

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmycactr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=emmycactr

## License

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