# How many awards will Hacks win at the 78th Emmy Awards

> Exactly 5 leads at 14%, runner-up 11% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 39 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmycount
Updated: 2026-07-12T23:20:48.974Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Leader: Exactly 5 at 14%
- Runner-up: Exactly 3 at 11%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 5 | 14¢ | +1pp | $410 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-awards-will-hacks-win-at-the-78th-emmy-aw-kalshi-kxemmycount-26hac-5 |
| Exactly 3 | 11¢ | +3pp | $85 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-awards-will-pluribus-win-at-the-78th-emmy-kalshi-kxemmycount-26plu-3 |
| Exactly 8 | 10¢ | +1pp | $252 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-awards-will-dtf-st-louis-win-at-the-78th-kalshi-kxemmycount-26dtf-8 |
| Exactly 4 | 8¢ | +1pp | $194 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-awards-will-hacks-win-at-the-78th-emmy-aw-kalshi-kxemmycount-26hac-4 |
| Exactly 6 | 4¢ | +1pp | $176 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-awards-will-hacks-win-at-the-78th-emmy-aw-kalshi-kxemmycount-26hac-6 |
| Exactly 7 | 3¢ | ±0 | $315 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-awards-will-widows-bay-win-at-the-78th-em-kalshi-kxemmycount-26wid-7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Exactly 5 | Exactly 3 | Exactly 8 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 10 | 3 | — |
| 2026-07-09 | 11 | 7 | 8 |
| 2026-07-10 | — | 10 | 9 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-09 · Exactly 3 +4pp 3→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · Exactly 3 +3pp 7→10¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents a 15% probability that HBO's Hacks will win exactly 7 Emmy Awards at the 78th Emmy Awards ceremony. The current market pricing reflects uncertainty about the show's competitive position relative to other nominees in multiple categories. The primary drivers of this estimate are the show's historical Emmy performance, the strength of competing shows this year, and how many categories voters view it as competitive in. The ceremony itself, scheduled for September 2026, will definitively resolve this outcome when award winners are announced. Between now and then, any major shifts in critical reception or industry sentiment could move these odds, though the distributed probabilities across multiple specific win-count outcomes suggest traders see substantial uncertainty around the final tally.

### Key factors

- Hacks has multiple top-contract price points ranging from 7 to 18 wins, with no single outcome commanding more than 5 cents, indicating high disagreement among traders about the likely outcome
- The leading contract at exactly 7 wins trades at only 15%, suggesting that even the most likely specific outcome is viewed as unlikely in absolute terms
- Competing show outcomes like The Pitt at exactly 14 wins also trade at low single-digit probabilities, indicating a fragmented field across multiple contenders
- Market liquidity is relatively modest ($84-$50 24-hour volume on top contracts), suggesting limited participant activity may be influencing price formation
- The September 2026 Emmy Awards ceremony will provide a definitive resolution, with all nominated shows' final award counts determined by voting outcomes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmycount
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=emmycount

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.