# Will Harrison Ford win Comedy Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 11 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmycsacto
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.882Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-09-14

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $155

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Ford | 56¢ | ±0 | $155 | kalshi | /markets/will-harrison-ford-win-comedy-supporting-actor-at-kalshi-kxemmycsacto-26sep14-har |
| Michael Urie | 4¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michael-urie-win-comedy-supporting-actor-at-t-kalshi-kxemmycsacto-26sep14-mic |
| Paul W. Downs | 7¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-paul-w-downs-win-comedy-supporting-actor-at-t-kalshi-kxemmycsacto-26sep14-pau |
| Ebon Moss-Bachrach | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ebon-moss-bachrach-win-comedy-supporting-acto-kalshi-kxemmycsacto-26sep14-ebo |
| Tyler James Williams | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tyler-james-williams-win-comedy-supporting-ac-kalshi-kxemmycsacto-26sep14-tyl |
| Bowen Yang | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bowen-yang-win-comedy-supporting-actor-at-the-kalshi-kxemmycsacto-26sep14-bow |
| Nick Offerman | 15¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nick-offerman-win-comedy-supporting-actor-at-kalshi-kxemmycsacto-26sep14-nic |
| Marcello Hernandez | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-marcello-hernandez-win-comedy-supporting-acto-kalshi-kxemmycsacto-26sep14-mar |
| Andrew Scott | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-andrew-scott-win-comedy-supporting-actor-at-t-kalshi-kxemmycsacto-26sep14-and |
| Ben Kingsley | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ben-kingsley-win-comedy-supporting-actor-at-t-kalshi-kxemmycsacto-26sep14-ben |
| Tie | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-comedy-supporting-actor-at-the-emmy-a-kalshi-kxemmycsacto-26sep14-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 6 |
| 2026-04-24 | 57 |
| 2026-05-02 | 57 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Harrison Ford will receive a Comedy Supporting Actor Emmy nomination and win the award in 2026. Ford is 83 years old and has not appeared in television comedies in recent years, which weighs heavily against this outcome. The low probability suggests traders view this as an unlikely scenario, given the typical pool of comedic supporting actors who compete in this category. The 2026 Emmy Awards ceremony, scheduled for September, will definitively resolve this contract. Major factors include whether Ford accepts a prominent comedic TV role before nomination eligibility closes, whether he generates sufficient industry momentum for a nomination, and how competitive the supporting actor field becomes that year. Current market activity shows minimal trading volume, indicating limited conviction among participants.

### Key factors

- Harrison Ford has not appeared in a television comedy series in over two decades, with his recent work concentrated on film franchises
- Ford would need to secure a prominent supporting comedic role in a qualifying series that airs between June 2025 and May 2026 to be eligible
- The Comedy Supporting Actor category typically features ensemble cast members from high-profile network or streaming comedies, not recently retired film actors
- Emmy voters historically favor recurring cast members with established comedic chemistry rather than one-off or guest appearances
- The 2026 Emmy Awards ceremony in September will determine the actual winner; nomination announcements occur in July

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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