# Will Carol Burnett win Comedy Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 14% across 6 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmycsactr
Updated: 2026-05-03T23:35:54.822Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-09-14

## Headline

- Probability: 14% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannah Einbinder | 47¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hannah-einbinder-win-comedy-supporting-actres-kalshi-kxemmycsactr-26sep14-han |
| Janelle James | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-janelle-james-win-comedy-supporting-actress-a-kalshi-kxemmycsactr-26sep14-jan |
| Jessica Williams | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jessica-williams-win-comedy-supporting-actres-kalshi-kxemmycsactr-26sep14-jes |
| Carol Burnett | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-carol-burnett-win-comedy-supporting-actress-a-kalshi-kxemmycsactr-26sep14-car |
| Michelle Pfeiffer | 20¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michelle-pfeiffer-win-comedy-supporting-actre-kalshi-kxemmycsactr-26sep14-mic |
| Tie | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-comedy-supporting-actress-at-the-emmy-kalshi-kxemmycsactr-26sep14-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | 50 |
| 2026-04-19 | 52 |
| 2026-04-28 | 34 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · Hannah Einbinder −3pp 51→48¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 14% probability reflects the assessment that Carol Burnett will win the Emmy Award for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series. The prediction is based on limited trading activity on Kalshi with 20 contracts. The main factors driving this relatively low probability likely include competition from established and emerging actresses in comedy, the strength of competing performances in the category, and potential shifts in Emmy voter preferences. The 2026 Emmy Awards ceremony, scheduled for September, will definitively resolve this market when the winner is announced. Until then, the probability may shift based on critical reception of nominated shows, industry momentum, and voting patterns from Emmy voters.

### Key factors

- Carol Burnett's nominee status and whether her show/performance receives official Emmy recognition
- The competitive field of other supporting actress nominees and their relative critical acclaim heading into voting
- Historical voting patterns for the Comedy Supporting Actress category and whether this year favors established or newer talent
- Trading volume and contract prices on prediction markets, which currently show 20 contracts at 14% on Kalshi
- The Emmy voting period (typically June-July for the September ceremony) when industry voters cast ballots

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmycsactr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=emmycsactr

## License

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