# Will Shrinking win Comedy Series at the Emmy Awards

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 14% across 7 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmycseries
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:44.642Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-09-14

## Headline

- Probability: 14% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $50

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shrinking | 13¢ | +2pp | $50 | kalshi | /markets/will-shrinking-win-comedy-series-at-the-emmy-award-kalshi-kxemmycseries-26sep14-shr |
| Hacks | 52¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hacks-win-comedy-series-at-the-emmy-awards-ha-kalshi-kxemmycseries-26sep14-hac |
| Only Murders in the Building | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-only-murders-in-the-building-win-comedy-serie-kalshi-kxemmycseries-26sep14-onl |
| The Comeback | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-comeback-win-comedy-series-at-the-emmy-aw-kalshi-kxemmycseries-26sep14-com |
| Nobody Wants This | 9¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nobody-wants-this-win-comedy-series-at-the-em-kalshi-kxemmycseries-26sep14-nob |
| Margo's Got Money Troubles | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-margos-got-money-troubles-win-comedy-series-a-kalshi-kxemmycseries-26sep14-mar |
| Tie | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-comedy-series-at-the-emmy-awards-tie-kalshi-kxemmycseries-26sep14-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | 63 |
| 2026-04-25 | 24 |
| 2026-04-29 | 24 |
| 2026-05-08 | 52 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The current 13% probability reflects traders' assessment that "Shrinking" is unlikely to win the Outstanding Comedy Series Emmy in 2026, despite its acclaim. The show faces competition from established comedy programs and newer entries that may have broader voter appeal. Key factors driving this low probability include "Shrinking's" relatively recent emergence as a comedic force compared to long-running competitors, potential voter fatigue if the show has already won major awards this season, and the Emmy Awards' historical tendency to distribute awards across multiple shows rather than concentrate wins. The probability will crystallize when Emmy nominations are announced, typically in July, which will clarify the competitive field and provide clarity on whether "Shrinking" earned a nomination. The final outcome resolves at the Emmy Awards ceremony in September 2026.

### Key factors

- Emmy voters' demonstrated preference for alternating awards across multiple comedy series rather than repeat winners in the same category
- Competition from established comedy franchises with larger viewing audiences and longer track records of Emmy success
- Timing of "Shrinking's" eligibility period and whether the show released sufficient new content in the qualifying window to maintain voter momentum
- Historical correlation between Golden Globe, Critics' Choice, and other precursor awards and Emmy comedy outcomes
- Current viewership and cultural relevance metrics relative to competing shows in the comedy category

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmycseries
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=emmycseries

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.