# Will Sterling K. Brown win Drama Actor at the Emmy Awards

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 29% across 3 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmydacto
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.614Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-09-14

## Headline

- Probability: 29% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Wyle | 76¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-noah-wyle-win-drama-actor-at-the-emmy-awards-kalshi-kxemmydacto-26sep14-noa |
| Sterling K. Brown | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sterling-k-brown-win-drama-actor-at-the-emmy-kalshi-kxemmydacto-26sep14-ste |
| Tie | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-drama-actor-at-the-emmy-awards-tie-kalshi-kxemmydacto-26sep14-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | 72 |
| 2026-04-27 | 75 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market reflects a 29% probability that Sterling K. Brown will win the Emmy Award for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series at the 2026 ceremony. The estimate incorporates his track record as a multiple Emmy nominee and recent television work, balanced against competition from established actors in the category. The probability would move significantly based on which dramas receive major network/critical support heading into Emmy voting season, and whether Brown lands a prominent role in a high-profile limited series or drama that airs before voting closes. The Emmy Awards ceremony is typically held in September, with voting ballots distributed to Academy members in advance. The main catalyst will be the official Emmy nominations announcement, which determines the final competitive field and typically occurs in July.

### Key factors

- Sterling K. Brown's nomination history and past Emmy performance in similar categories
- The strength and visibility of competing actors' 2025-2026 television roles and critical reception
- Which networks submit their drama series and lead actors for Emmy consideration and promotional push
- The timing and prominence of any new Brown television work released between now and July nomination announcement
- Total voter participation rates and category competitiveness in the Supporting Actor in Drama race

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmydacto
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=emmydacto

## License

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