# Will Rhea Seehorn win Drama Actress at the Emmy Awards

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 19% across 5 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmydactr
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.452Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-09-14

## Headline

- Probability: 19% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $29

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhea Seehorn | 62¢ | +1pp | $29 | kalshi | /markets/will-rhea-seehorn-win-drama-actress-at-the-emmy-aw-kalshi-kxemmydactr-26sep14-rhe |
| Keri Russell | 18¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-keri-russell-win-drama-actress-at-the-emmy-aw-kalshi-kxemmydactr-26sep14-ker |
| Zendaya | 7¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-zendaya-win-drama-actress-at-the-emmy-awards-kalshi-kxemmydactr-26sep14-zen |
| Michelle Pfeiffer | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michelle-pfeiffer-win-drama-actress-at-the-em-kalshi-kxemmydactr-26sep14-mic |
| Tie | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-drama-actress-at-the-emmy-awards-tie-kalshi-kxemmydactr-26sep14-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 41 |
| 2026-04-27 | 28 |
| 2026-04-30 | 13 |
| 2026-05-07 | 63 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability indicates a 1-in-5 chance that Rhea Seehorn wins the Emmy Award for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series at the 2026 ceremony. The 19% assessment reflects her track record as a four-time Emmy nominee (primarily for Better Call Saul) against a competitive field that includes established contenders. Her probability would likely rise if her current or recent television work receives significant critical acclaim and guild recognition during the 2026 eligibility period, or fall if competing actresses from higher-profile productions dominate the nominations conversation. The Emmy Awards nomination announcement, typically in July for a September ceremony, will be the critical moment that either validates or contradicts this current market estimate. At that point, her inclusion or exclusion from the official nominee pool will largely determine her path to victory.

### Key factors

- Rhea Seehorn has received four prior Emmy nominations, establishing her as a recurring contender but not a consistent winner in this category
- The 2026 Emmy eligibility period (June 2025-May 2026) determines which projects and performances voters will evaluate; her current work's reception during this window is measurable
- Nomination announcements in July 2026 will reveal the actual competitive field; her nomination chances correlate strongly with this publicly announced outcome
- Historical voting patterns show drama supporting actress categories typically favor actresses in acclaimed series rather than individual performances, making show strength a quantifiable factor
- Market prices for similar categories show substantial gaps (Noah Wyle at 76% vs. Keri Russell at 18%), suggesting significant uncertainty about competitive positioning rather than consensus dismissal

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmydactr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=emmydactr

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.