# Will Billy Crudup win Drama Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 7 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmydsacto
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:41.437Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-09-14

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ball | 22¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-patrick-ball-win-drama-supporting-actor-at-th-kalshi-kxemmydsacto-26sep14-pat |
| Billy Crudup | 25¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-billy-crudup-win-drama-supporting-actor-at-th-kalshi-kxemmydsacto-26sep14-bil |
| Tom Pelphrey | 22¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tom-pelphrey-win-drama-supporting-actor-at-th-kalshi-kxemmydsacto-26sep14-tom |
| Jack Lowden | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jack-lowden-win-drama-supporting-actor-at-the-kalshi-kxemmydsacto-26sep14-jac |
| Colman Domingo | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-colman-domingo-win-drama-supporting-actor-at-kalshi-kxemmydsacto-26sep14-col |
| Jacob Elordi | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jacob-elordi-win-drama-supporting-actor-at-th-kalshi-kxemmydsacto-26sep14-jaco |
| Tie | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-drama-supporting-actor-at-the-emmy-aw-kalshi-kxemmydsacto-26sep14-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 13 |
| 2026-04-24 | 20 |
| 2026-04-30 | 19 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This represents a 16% chance that Billy Crudup will win the Emmy Award for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series at the 2026 ceremony. The probability reflects his position among competing actors in what is typically a competitive category. Key factors driving this level include the strength of competing nominees, his recent television visibility and critical reception, and historical voting patterns in the Supporting Actor category. The main catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be the Emmy nominations announcement, which determines the official field of competitors. Crudup's chances could shift significantly based on which other actors receive nominations, critical momentum heading into voting, and voter preferences among the eligible pool. Television Academy voting patterns have historically favored performers with strong ensemble casts and recent acclaimed work.

### Key factors

- Billy Crudup's eligibility depends on his television appearances in the 2025-2026 Emmy eligibility window and the specific series considered
- The competitive density of the Supporting Actor in Drama category typically includes 6-8 strong contenders, affecting individual probability floors
- Emmy voting is determined by Television Academy members, with historical bias toward recent high-profile dramatic performances and ensemble casts
- Nomination announcement timing and the specific slate of competitors will materially shift probability estimates
- Crudup's visibility in major dramatic productions during the eligibility period directly correlates with critic recognition and voter awareness

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=emmydsacto

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