# Will Karolina Wydra win Drama Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 15% across 6 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmydsactr
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:38.838Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-09-14

## Headline

- Probability: 15% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $478

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julianne Nicholson | 7¢ | ±0 | $300 | kalshi | /markets/will-julianne-nicholson-win-drama-supporting-actre-kalshi-kxemmydsactr-26sep14-jul |
| Karolina Wydra | 6¢ | +1pp | $178 | kalshi | /markets/will-karolina-wydra-win-drama-supporting-actress-a-kalshi-kxemmydsactr-26sep14-kar |
| Katherine LaNasa | 63¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-katherine-lanasa-win-drama-supporting-actress-kalshi-kxemmydsactr-26sep14-kat |
| Taylor Dearden | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-dearden-win-drama-supporting-actress-a-kalshi-kxemmydsactr-26sep14-tay |
| Emilia Jones | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-emilia-jones-win-drama-supporting-actress-at-kalshi-kxemmydsactr-26sep14-emi |
| Tie | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-drama-supporting-actress-at-the-emmy-kalshi-kxemmydsactr-26sep14-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 46 |
| 2026-04-24 | 64 |
| 2026-05-01 | 35 |
| 2026-05-09 | 6 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Karolina Wydra −5pp 10→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 18% probability indicates that Karolina Wydra is considered a moderate longshot to win the Emmy Award for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series. The estimate reflects her visibility in recent television work balanced against the typically competitive field of nominees in this category. Emmy outcomes are influenced by voter preferences across the television industry, the strength of competing performances in acclaimed dramas, and overall career momentum heading into the ceremony. The 2026 Emmy Awards ceremony, scheduled for September, will serve as the ultimate resolution event. Until then, the probability may shift based on which shows gain critical acclaim during the remainder of the television season, casting announcements affecting competition, and any shifts in industry sentiment captured through early predictions.

### Key factors

- Current trading volume on comparable acting categories shows minimal recent activity ($0 in 24h volume for most contracts), suggesting limited market confidence or interest in Emmy acting predictions at this stage
- Wydra's 18% probability sits between lower contenders like Colman Domingo (5%) and higher ones like Billy Crudup (25%), indicating perceived mid-tier candidacy relative to the category field
- The Emmy Awards ceremony will occur in September 2026, approximately four months from now, providing time for new performances and critical reception to influence voter sentiment
- Historical Emmy voting patterns show that supporting acting categories often reward performances from prestige dramas that maintain consistent critical acclaim throughout their seasons
- The comparison actors listed trade at valuations ranging from 5¢ to 76¢, reflecting significant market disagreement about which dramatic performances will resonate most with Emmy voters

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmydsactr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=emmydsactr

## License

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