# Will Pluribus win Drama Series at the Emmy Awards

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 19% across 5 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmydseries
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.217Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-09-14

## Headline

- Probability: 19% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $90

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pluribus | 16¢ | +1pp | $90 | kalshi | /markets/will-pluribus-win-drama-series-at-the-emmy-awards-kalshi-kxemmydseries-26sep14-plu |
| The Pitt | 67¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-pitt-win-drama-series-at-the-emmy-awards-kalshi-kxemmydseries-26sep14-pit |
| Euphoria | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-euphoria-win-drama-series-at-the-emmy-awards-kalshi-kxemmydseries-26sep14-eup |
| The Testaments | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-testaments-win-drama-series-at-the-emmy-a-kalshi-kxemmydseries-26sep14-tes |
| Tie | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-drama-series-at-the-emmy-awards-tie-kalshi-kxemmydseries-26sep14-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 27 |
| 2026-04-25 | 36 |
| 2026-04-29 | 41 |
| 2026-05-08 | 14 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 22% probability reflects the likelihood that Pluribus wins the Emmy Award for Outstanding Drama Series. The outcome depends primarily on the strength of competing shows' critical reception and voting patterns within the Television Academy's membership. Emmy voting typically heavily weights critical acclaim, viewership during the eligibility period, and historical academy preferences. The main catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the Emmy Awards ceremony scheduled for September 2026, when academy voters cast their final ballots. Shifts in the probability before then would likely reflect changes in critical consensus, awards season momentum from other ceremonies (like the Golden Globes or SAG Awards in early 2026), or significant viewership data from competing dramas during the eligibility window.

### Key factors

- Pluribus's average critical ratings compared to other nominated dramas during the 2025-2026 eligibility period
- Historical Emmy voting patterns showing which drama categories favor new shows versus returning series
- Performance of competing dramas at earlier awards ceremonies (Golden Globes, SAG Awards, Critics Choice Awards)
- Total viewership and social media engagement metrics for Pluribus relative to nominated competitors
- Emmy Academy demographic composition and voting bloc preferences that may favor certain genre or network characteristics

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmydseries
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=emmydseries

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.