# Will Richard Gadd win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 10 contracts — refreshed 15 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmylimitedacto
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:49.127Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2027-09-14

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $31

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Rhys | 31¢ | +1pp | $31 | kalshi | /markets/will-matthew-rhys-win-movielimited-actor-at-the-em-kalshi-kxemmylimitedacto-26sep14-mat |
| Charlie Hunnam | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-charlie-hunnam-win-movielimited-actor-at-the-kalshi-kxemmylimitedacto-26sep14-cha |
| Cillian Murphy | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cillian-murphy-win-movielimited-actor-at-the-kalshi-kxemmylimitedacto-26sep14-cil |
| Jamie Bell | 20¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jamie-bell-win-movielimited-actor-at-the-emmy-kalshi-kxemmylimitedacto-26sep14-jam |
| Jason Bateman | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jason-bateman-win-movielimited-actor-at-the-e-kalshi-kxemmylimitedacto-26sep14-jas |
| Michael Shannon | 4¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michael-shannon-win-movielimited-actor-at-the-kalshi-kxemmylimitedacto-26sep14-mic |
| Oscar Isaac | 29¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-oscar-isaac-win-movielimited-actor-at-the-emm-kalshi-kxemmylimitedacto-26sep14-osc |
| Paul Anthony Kelly | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-paul-anthony-kelly-win-movielimited-actor-at-kalshi-kxemmylimitedacto-26sep14-pau |
| Richard Gadd | 7¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-richard-gadd-win-movielimited-actor-at-the-em-kalshi-kxemmylimitedacto-26sep14-ric |
| Tie | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-movielimited-actor-at-the-emmy-awards-kalshi-kxemmylimitedacto-26sep14-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 32 |
| 2026-06-12 | 24 |
| 2026-06-19 | 26 |
| 2026-06-25 | 29 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · Matthew Rhys +3pp 28→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Oscar Isaac +3pp 26→29¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents a 26% chance that Richard Gadd wins the Outstanding Short Form Comedy or Drama Series acting category at the 2026 Emmy Awards. The probability reflects Gadd's modest track record in major awards competitions, offset by his recent high-profile work on "Baby Reindeer." The current level suggests market participants view him as a viable but not favored contender. The main uncertainties are whether "Baby Reindeer" maintains cultural momentum through Emmy voting season and how competitive the field becomes as networks submit their strongest performers. The Emmy nominations will be announced in July 2026, which will clarify whether Gadd receives a nomination and reveal his competition. Resolution occurs at the Emmy Awards ceremony, scheduled for September 2026.

### Key factors

- Gadd's "Baby Reindeer" was a Netflix global success in 2024, but momentum for year-old content may have faded by Emmy voting in mid-2026
- The Outstanding Limited Series Actor category historically favors established award-circuit participants with multiple major nominations
- Emmy voters typically submit nominees by May-June 2026, providing the first concrete signal of whether Gadd advances beyond speculation
- No prior Emmy, Golden Globe, or SAG Award nominations visible in Gadd's history, suggesting limited name recognition among voters
- The 26% probability places him below established contenders (Noah Wyle at 76%) but above marginal candidates, indicating genuine consideration among market participants

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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