# Will Claire Danes win Movie/Limited Actress at the Emmy Awards

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 17% across 5 contracts — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmylimitedactr
Updated: 2026-07-14T04:20:49.515Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2027-09-14

## Headline

- Probability: 17% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $636

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Pidgeon | 16¢ | −4pp | $377 | kalshi | /markets/will-sarah-pidgeon-win-movielimited-actress-at-the-kalshi-kxemmylimitedactr-26sep14-sara |
| Carey Mulligan | 33¢ | −1pp | $147 | kalshi | /markets/will-carey-mulligan-win-movielimited-actress-at-th-kalshi-kxemmylimitedactr-26sep14-care |
| Sarah Snook | 29¢ | +5pp | $113 | kalshi | /markets/will-sarah-snook-win-movielimited-actress-at-the-e-kalshi-kxemmylimitedactr-26sep14-sar |
| Sally Field | 5¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sally-field-win-movielimited-actress-at-the-e-kalshi-kxemmylimitedactr-26sep14-sal |
| Tie | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-movielimited-actress-at-the-emmy-awar-kalshi-kxemmylimitedactr-26sep14-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | 20 |
| 2026-06-30 | 38 |
| 2026-07-07 | 26 |
| 2026-07-12 | 10 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-09 · Carey Mulligan +16pp 30→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · Sarah Snook +16pp 15→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · Carey Mulligan −14pp 46→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · Sarah Pidgeon −12pp 30→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · Sarah Snook −10pp 21→11¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents a 17% estimated chance that Claire Danes wins the Emmy Award for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Movie or Limited Series at the 2026 Emmy Awards ceremony. The market pricing reflects that while Danes is a respected veteran performer, she faces competitive pressure from other nominated actresses. Her probability would increase if she secures a high-profile Emmy-eligible role or if leading competitors receive less critical acclaim for their performances. The Emmy Awards ceremony itself, scheduled for September 2026, will provide the definitive resolution. Market participants are currently pricing Sarah Snook and Carey Mulligan as stronger contenders at 34¢ and 38¢ respectively, suggesting doubts about Danes' competitive position in this particular category relative to the field.

### Key factors

- Claire Danes is priced at 7¢ compared to Sarah Snook at 34¢ and Carey Mulligan at 38¢, indicating market participants view her as a significantly weaker contender than the two frontrunners
- The Danes contract has the highest 24-hour trading volume at $27, suggesting more recent market activity and price discovery than other nominees
- No Emmy-eligible roles for Danes have been publicly announced for the 2025-2026 eligibility window as of mid-2026, which differs from competitors with confirmed projects
- Historical Emmy voting patterns show that critical acclaim, industry visibility, and campaign activity substantially influence outcomes in competitive supporting actress categories
- The September 2026 Emmy Awards ceremony date provides the hard resolution point, with nomination announcements typically occurring several weeks prior

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmylimitedactr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=emmylimitedactr

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