# Will Nick Offerman win Movie/Limited Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 22% across 4 contracts — refreshed 41 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmylsacto
Updated: 2026-06-26T05:20:48.681Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2027-09-14

## Headline

- Probability: 22% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $100

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Harbour | 22¢ | +1pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-david-harbour-win-movielimited-supporting-act-kalshi-kxemmylsacto-26sep14-dav |
| Charles Melton | 44¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-charles-melton-win-movielimited-supporting-ac-kalshi-kxemmylsacto-26sep14-cha |
| Richard Gadd | 19¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-richard-gadd-win-movielimited-supporting-acto-kalshi-kxemmylsacto-26sep14-rich |
| Tie | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-movielimited-supporting-actor-at-the-kalshi-kxemmylsacto-26sep14-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 9 |
| 2026-06-12 | 29 |
| 2026-06-19 | 30 |
| 2026-06-26 | 22 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · David Harbour −9pp 35→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · David Harbour −5pp 26→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Charles Melton +4pp 41→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · David Harbour +3pp 33→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Charles Melton −3pp 41→38¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects a 17% probability that Nick Offerman wins the Emmy Award for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Movie or Limited Series. Offerman's chances depend primarily on the strength of his competition and whether his recent work qualifies for Emmy eligibility in the relevant year. The prediction reflects relatively low odds compared to other contenders, suggesting either limited major film or limited series roles in the eligible period, or stronger performances from competing actors. The Emmy Awards ceremony, typically held in September, will definitively resolve this question. Between now and then, the release and reception of Offerman's eligible projects could shift probabilities upward if his performances gain critical recognition or industry momentum.

### Key factors

- Nick Offerman's eligible film and limited series projects for the Emmy year and their industry visibility
- Strength and recognition of competing nominees in the Movie/Limited Supporting Actor category
- Critical reception and awards circuit performance (precursor ceremonies like Golden Globes or SAG Awards) of Offerman's work
- The specific Emmy eligibility period and which of Offerman's recent projects qualify for consideration
- Historical voting patterns for this category and Offerman's previous Emmy nomination track record

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=emmylsacto

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