# Will Tie win Movie/Limited Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 15% across 5 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmylsactr
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.700Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2027-09-14

## Headline

- Probability: 15% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constance Zimmer | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-constance-zimmer-win-movielimited-supporting-kalshi-kxemmylsactr-26sep14-con |
| Cailee Spaeny | 32¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cailee-spaeny-win-movielimited-supporting-act-kalshi-kxemmylsactr-26sep14-cai |
| Grace Gummer | 20¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-grace-gummer-win-movielimited-supporting-actr-kalshi-kxemmylsactr-26sep14-gra |
| Yuh-Jung Youn | 13¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yuh-jung-youn-win-movielimited-supporting-act-kalshi-kxemmylsactr-26sep14-yuh |
| Tie | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-movielimited-supporting-actress-at-th-kalshi-kxemmylsactr-26sep14-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | 31 |
| 2026-06-14 | 32 |
| 2026-06-19 | 24 |
| 2026-06-26 | 32 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · Grace Gummer +8pp 24→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Cailee Spaeny −3pp 35→32¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

A 15% probability indicates roughly a 1-in-6 chance that a tie will occur in the Movie/Limited Supporting Actress category at the Emmy Awards. Emmy ties in acting categories are relatively uncommon events, typically occurring when two performers receive identical vote tallies from the Academy's voting body. The current market price reflects uncertainty around voter behavior and the competitiveness of this year's field. The main factors driving this probability include the number and relative strength of nominated candidates—ties become more likely when several performers split votes evenly—and historical Emmy voting patterns in this specific category. Resolution will occur at the 2026 Emmy Awards ceremony when results are officially announced, which typically takes place in September. Until then, shifts in industry sentiment, critics' awards outcomes, and any emerging frontrunner consensus could adjust market expectations around the likelihood of a split decision.

### Key factors

- Emmy acting ties have occurred in recent years but remain statistical outliers, typically happening in 1-3% of award categories annually
- A tie outcome requires two performers to receive exactly equal votes from Academy members, which depends on both the field strength and voting distribution patterns
- Movie/Limited Supporting Actress category competitiveness and frontrunner emergence in coming months will likely influence tie probability estimates
- Historical voting concentration in this category—whether votes typically cluster around 1-2 clear frontrunners or distribute more evenly—directly impacts tie likelihood
- The September 2026 Emmy Awards ceremony date will provide the definitive resolution, with no intermediate data releases that would clarify voting trends beforehand

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmylsactr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=emmylsactr

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.