# Will The Beast in Me win Limited Series at the Emmy Awards

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 14% across 8 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmylseries
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:40.299Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-09-14

## Headline

- Probability: 14% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $253

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beef | 21¢ | ±0 | $250 | kalshi | /markets/will-beef-win-limited-series-at-the-emmy-awards-be-kalshi-kxemmylseries-26sep14-bee |
| Love Story | 33¢ | +2pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-love-story-win-limited-series-at-the-emmy-awa-kalshi-kxemmylseries-26sep14-lov |
| The Beast in Me | 7¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-beast-in-me-win-limited-series-at-the-emm-kalshi-kxemmylseries-26sep14-bea |
| All Her Fault | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-all-her-fault-win-limited-series-at-the-emmy-kalshi-kxemmylseries-26sep14-all |
| Half Man | 21¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-half-man-win-limited-series-at-the-emmy-award-kalshi-kxemmylseries-26sep14-hal |
| Death by Lightning | 6¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-death-by-lightning-win-limited-series-at-the-kalshi-kxemmylseries-26sep14-dea |
| Lord of the Flies | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lord-of-the-flies-win-limited-series-at-the-e-kalshi-kxemmylseries-26sep14-lor |
| DTF St. Louis | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dtf-st-louis-win-limited-series-at-the-emmy-a-kalshi-kxemmylseries-26sep14-dtf |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 15 |
| 2026-04-24 | 19 |
| 2026-05-01 | 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | 22 |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Beef −14pp 35→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Love Story +11pp 19→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Lord of the Flies +7pp 4→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Death by Lightning +5pp 1→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The Beast in Me has a 17% chance of winning the Limited Series category at the Emmy Awards, based on current market pricing. This probability reflects expectations about the show's critical reception, voter preferences, and competition from other nominated series in this category. The odds would likely move higher if the show gains momentum through industry awards earlier in the season (such as Golden Globes or Critics Choice Awards), or lower if competing series generate stronger critical consensus. The Emmy Awards typically take place in September, which represents the key resolution point for this market. Voter sentiment often crystallizes in the months leading up to the ceremony, influenced by screening campaigns, press coverage, and performance at precursor awards.

### Key factors

- Limited Series Emmy voting comprises roughly 12,000 industry voters whose preferences shift based on critical reviews and award-season momentum
- The show's performance at precursor ceremonies (Golden Globes, SAG Awards, Critics Choice) historically correlates with Emmy voting patterns
- Competition intensity in Limited Series varies year to year; a concentrated field of strong contenders would suppress any single show's probability
- Voter fatigue or turnout changes in 2026 could meaningfully impact the size and composition of the Emmy electorate
- The Emmy Awards ceremony in September 2026 represents the definitive resolution date for this market

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmylseries
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=emmylseries

## License

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