# Will Betty Gilpin be on the list of nominees for Movie/Limited Supporting Actress at the 78th Emmy Awards

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 51% across 19 contracts — refreshed 41 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmynoms
Updated: 2026-06-08T06:20:07.120Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2027-07-08

## Headline

- Probability: 51% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $433

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Harbour | 51¢ | −2pp | $230 | kalshi | /markets/will-david-harbour-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-for-kalshi-kxemmynoms-26-lsacto-dav |
| Kerry Washington | 41¢ | −17pp | $166 | kalshi | /markets/will-kerry-washington-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-f-kalshi-kxemmynoms-26-lactr-ker |
| Jake Lacy | 29¢ | −10pp | $32 | kalshi | /markets/will-jake-lacy-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-for-movi-kalshi-kxemmynoms-26-lsacto-jak |
| The Bear | 82¢ | +22pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-bear-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-for-comed-kalshi-kxemmynoms-26-com-bear |
| Isa Briones | 37¢ | −27pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-isa-briones-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-for-dr-kalshi-kxemmynoms-26-dsactr-isa |
| Jack Lowden | 61¢ | +35pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jack-lowden-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-for-dr-kalshi-kxemmynoms-26-dsacto-jac |
| Jason Bateman | 41¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jason-bateman-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-for-kalshi-kxemmynoms-26-lact-jas |
| Emilia Jones | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-emilia-jones-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-for-d-kalshi-kxemmynoms-26-dsactr-emi |
| Charlie Hunnam | 61¢ | +24pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-charlie-hunnam-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-for-kalshi-kxemmynoms-26-lact-cha |
| DTF St. Louis | 34¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dtf-st-louis-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-for-l-kalshi-kxemmynoms-26-ls-dtf |
| Richard Gadd | 6¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-richard-gadd-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-for-m-kalshi-kxemmynoms-26-lact-ric |
| The Thursday Murder Club | 49¢ | +24pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-thursday-murder-club-be-on-the-list-of-no-kalshi-kxemmynoms-26-tvm-thur |
| The Immortal Man be on the list of nominees for TV Movie at the 78th Emmy Awards?: Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-peaky-blinders-the-immortal-man-be-on-the-lis-kalshi-kxemmynoms-26-tvm-peak |
| The Best You Can | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-best-you-can-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-f-kalshi-kxemmynoms-26-tvm-bes |
| Swiped | 85¢ | +20pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-swiped-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-for-tv-movi-kalshi-kxemmynoms-26-tvm-swi |
| Deep Cover | 86¢ | +20pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-deep-cover-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-for-tv-kalshi-kxemmynoms-26-tvm-dee |
| Happy Gilmore 2 | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-happy-gilmore-2-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-fo-kalshi-kxemmynoms-26-tvm-hap |
| Remarkably Bright Creatures | 94¢ | +18pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-remarkably-bright-creatures-be-on-the-list-of-kalshi-kxemmynoms-26-tvm-rem |
| Echo Valley | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-echo-valley-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-for-tv-kalshi-kxemmynoms-26-tvm-ech |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | 42 |
| 2026-06-07 | 42 |
| 2026-06-08 | 47 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-08 · Jack Lowden +35pp 26→61¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Isa Briones −27pp 64→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Jack Lowden −26pp 52→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Charlie Hunnam −25pp 62→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-08 · Charlie Hunnam +24pp 37→61¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents a roughly even-odds assessment of whether actress Betty Gilpin will receive a nomination for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Movie or Limited Series at the 78th Emmy Awards. The 51% probability reflects uncertainty about her competitiveness within a large field of eligible performers for these categories. Key drivers of this level include the quality and visibility of her 2024-2025 project submissions, the overall competitive landscape of supporting actress nominees in her category tier, and historical patterns of nomination recognition for her prior work. The probability will resolve when the Emmy Awards nominating committee announces its official ballot, which typically occurs in mid-July for the ceremony held in September. Until then, industry reception to her recent projects and relative strength compared to other contenders will shape market expectations.

### Key factors

- Betty Gilpin's nomination history and prior Emmy recognition levels in similar categories
- The specific projects she appeared in during the 2024-2025 eligibility window and their industry visibility
- The size and competitive depth of the Movie/Limited Supporting Actress field for this Emmy cycle
- Volume and recency of industry awards recognition she received heading into nomination voting
- Typical submission strategy and campaign intensity from her team or studio compared to peer actresses

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmynoms
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=emmynoms

## License

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