# Will Swiped win TV Movie at the Emmy Awards

> Closed. Last odds frozen 18 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmytvmovie
Updated: 2026-09-02T01:20:51.987Z
Category: entertainment
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-09-14

## Headline

- Probability: 20% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $31

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ghost War win Outstanding Movie at the Emmy Awards?: Tom Clancy's Jack Ryan: Ghost War | 3¢ | −1pp | $31 | kalshi | /markets/will-tom-clancys-jack-ryan-ghost-war-win-outstandi-kalshi-kxemmytvmovie-26sep14-tom |
| Remarkably Bright Creatures | 93¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-remarkably-bright-creatures-win-outstanding-m-kalshi-kxemmytvmovie-26sep14-rem |
| Tie | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-outstanding-movie-at-the-emmy-awards-kalshi-kxemmytvmovie-26sep14-tie |
| Heads Of State | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-heads-of-state-win-outstanding-movie-at-the-e-kalshi-kxemmytvmovie-26sep14-hea |
| Miss You, Love You | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-miss-you-love-you-win-outstanding-movie-at-th-kalshi-kxemmytvmovie-26sep14-mis |
| People We Meet On Vacation | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-people-we-meet-on-vacation-win-outstanding-mo-kalshi-kxemmytvmovie-26sep14-peo |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | 90 |
| 2026-08-31 | 3 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This represents the estimated chance that Swiped will win the Emmy Award for Outstanding Television Movie at the 2026 Emmy Awards ceremony. The 14% probability reflects a competitive field where Remarkably Bright Creatures is the current market favorite at 91%, suggesting Swiped is viewed as a solid contender but not among the top candidates. The probability would move based on critical reception, industry buzz, and voting patterns from Emmy voters who determine the winner. The Emmy Awards ceremony in September 2026 will be the final resolution point. Until then, factors like nomination confirmation, campaign visibility, and comparative quality assessments by industry voters will drive any probability shifts. The low trading volume on most contracts suggests limited market confidence in predicting the outcome with certainty.

### Key factors

- Remarkably Bright Creatures maintains 91 cents on the market, indicating it is the consensus favorite, leaving Swiped competing for remaining votes among other contenders
- Swiped's 14% probability ranks fourth or fifth among the tracked television movie candidates, based on relative contract pricing
- Emmy voting outcomes depend on Academy member preferences which can shift based on campaign efforts, screenings, and industry discussions between now and September 2026
- Trading volume across television movie contracts is relatively light, suggesting limited market participation and potentially higher uncertainty in price discovery
- The final Emmy Awards ceremony is scheduled for September 2026, providing the resolution date for this market

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/emmytvmovie
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=emmytvmovie

## License

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