# Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Connie Chan in CA-11 before Nov 3, 2026

> Cori Bush leads at 90%, runner-up 89% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 27 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/endorseaoc
Updated: 2026-06-25T23:20:50.327Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Cori Bush at 90%
- Runner-up: Claire Valdez at 89%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cori Bush | 90¢ | −16pp | $410 | kalshi | /markets/will-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-endorse-cori-bush-in-kalshi-kxendorseaoc-26nov03-cbus |
| Claire Valdez | 89¢ | +12pp | $303 | kalshi | /markets/will-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-endorse-claire-valde-kalshi-kxendorseaoc-26nov03-cval |
| Abdul El-Sayed | 86¢ | +20pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-endorse-abdul-el-say-kalshi-kxendorseaoc-26nov03-aels |
| Darializa Avila Chevalier | 81¢ | +13pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-endorse-darializa-av-kalshi-kxendorseaoc-26nov03-dche |
| Connie Chan | 27¢ | +7pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-endorse-connie-chan-kalshi-kxendorseaoc-26nov03-ccha |
| Graham Platner | 26¢ | −6pp | $303 | kalshi | /markets/will-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-endorse-graham-platn-kalshi-kxendorseaoc-26nov03-gpla |
| Nida Allam | 3¢ | −25pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-endorse-nida-allam-i-kalshi-kxendorseaoc-26nov03-nall |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Cori Bush | Claire Valdez | Abdul El-Sayed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
| 2026-06-09 | 32 | — | 39 |
| 2026-06-11 | — | — | 34 |
| 2026-06-13 | — | 59 | — |
| 2026-06-18 | 70 | 67 | 72 |
| 2026-06-24 | 54 | 70 | 64 |
| 2026-06-25 | — | 82 | 84 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Darializa Avila Chevalier −29pp 52→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Darializa Avila Chevalier +29pp 26→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Cori Bush −23pp 70→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Cori Bush +23pp 47→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Abdul El-Sayed −21pp 85→64¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract resolves yes if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez publicly endorses Connie Chan in California's 11th congressional district before Election Day 2026. At 46 cents on Kalshi, traders estimate roughly a 46% probability of this endorsement occurring. AOC has selectively endorsed progressive candidates in competitive races; whether she backs Chan depends on Chan's viability as a candidate, her policy alignment with AOC's platform, and AOC's bandwidth for endorsing candidates outside her own state. The primary catalyst would be Chan's performance in California's primary in June 2026, which would signal whether AOC views her as a viable general election candidate worth amplifying. Endorsement timing typically clusters in the final months before the general election.

### Key factors

- CA-11 primary results in June 2026 will determine if Chan advances to the general election as a frontrunner worthy of national progressive endorsement
- AOC's historical endorsement patterns show selective support for progressive candidates in competitive races; her track record indicates which candidate profiles and district dynamics trigger her involvement
- Connie Chan's campaign messaging, fundraising trajectory, and polling relative to opponents will indicate whether she appears viable enough to merit endorsement investment from a national political figure
- Competing endorsement opportunities for AOC in other races (NY-07, Michigan Senate, Maine Senate) may affect her bandwidth and whether CA-11 becomes a priority
- The timing window closes November 3, 2026; endorsements typically occur 2-3 months before Election Day, making September-October 2026 the most likely period for any resolution

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/endorseaoc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=endorseaoc

## License

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