# Will Angus King endorse Susan Collins in the 2026 Maine Senate election before Nov 3, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 6 contracts — refreshed 8 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/endorsecollins
Updated: 2026-07-14T04:20:48.795Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angus King | 3¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-angus-king-endorse-susan-collins-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxendorsecollins-26nov03-akin |
| Greg Elder | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-greg-elder-endorse-susan-collins-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxendorsecollins-26nov03-geld |
| Jake Auchincloss | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jake-auchincloss-endorse-susan-collins-in-the-kalshi-kxendorsecollins-26nov03-jauc |
| John Fetterman | 11¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-john-fetterman-endorse-susan-collins-in-the-2-kalshi-kxendorsecollins-26nov03-jfet |
| Jared Golden | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jared-golden-endorse-susan-collins-in-the-202-kalshi-kxendorsecollins-26nov03-jgol |
| Olympia Snowe | 19¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-olympia-snowe-endorse-susan-collins-in-the-20-kalshi-kxendorsecollins-26nov03-osno |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | 19 |
| 2026-07-01 | 8 |
| 2026-07-07 | 5 |
| 2026-07-12 | 11 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-08 · Olympia Snowe −7pp 26→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · Angus King −3pp 6→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · Jared Golden −3pp 8→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the chance that Maine's independent U.S. Senator Angus King will publicly endorse incumbent Republican Susan Collins before the November 3, 2026 general election. King and Collins have maintained a cross-party working relationship and both represent Maine as moderates, which could favor an endorsement. However, King's party affiliation and general independence from the Republican Party create friction against a formal endorsement. The current 27% probability suggests markets see it as unlikely but plausible. Key drivers include whether Collins faces a competitive Democratic challenger who King might prefer to defeat, and the overall political environment in Maine closer to Election Day. Any endorsement would likely come in the final weeks of the campaign if it occurs at all.

### Key factors

- Angus King has historically endorsed Democrats in presidential races and maintained independent status; formal endorsement of a Republican would mark a shift requiring either strategic reasoning or relationship-based motivation
- The competitiveness and identity of Collins's Democratic challenger remains crucial—King may be more inclined to endorse if facing a candidate significantly left of his own political center
- King's September-October 2026 public statements, media appearances, and campaign activities in Maine will provide signals about his electoral calculus and Collins's vulnerabilities
- Endorsements typically cluster in the final 4-6 weeks before elections; King's silence or active campaigning for other candidates would reduce endorsement probability
- Recent polarization trends in Maine politics and King's demonstrated willingness to work across party lines on specific issues versus broader campaign endorsements represent competing historical patterns

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/endorsecollins
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=endorsecollins
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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