# Will Donald Trump endorse James Fishback in Florida's gubernatorial election (primary or general) before Aug 18, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 9% across 1 contract — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/endorsefishback
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.490Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-18

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $56

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candace Owens | 9¢ | +2pp | $56 | kalshi | /markets/will-candace-owens-endorse-james-fishback-in-flori-kalshi-kxendorsefishback-26aug18-cowe |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | 49 |
| 2026-06-11 | 25 |
| 2026-06-19 | 7 |
| 2026-06-25 | 9 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · Candace Owens −9pp 16→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability measures whether Donald Trump will publicly endorse James Fishback for Florida governor in either the primary or general election before August 18, 2026. The 26% probability reflects Trump's established pattern of selective endorsements in 2026 races, tempered by uncertainty about Fishback's profile within Trump's coalition and the timeline remaining. Upward pressure would come from Fishback gaining traction in polling or fundraising, while lower probabilities would reflect Trump endorsing a competing candidate or declining to engage in the Florida governor's race. The key catalyst is the Florida Republican primary election, typically scheduled for August 2026, which would resolve most uncertainty about Trump's endorsement priorities in this race.

### Key factors

- Trump has endorsed multiple 2026 Senate candidates (Collins in Georgia, Barr in Kentucky) at relatively high probabilities (62¢, 51¢), suggesting he is actively making endorsements in 2026 races
- James Fishback's relative prominence and alignment with Trump's stated priorities is unclear compared to other 2026 Florida candidates Trump might target
- Florida's gubernatorial primary occurs in August 2026, creating a hard deadline for Trump's endorsement decision in this specific race
- Trump's historical pattern shows selective rather than universal endorsements, particularly in executive races where he may defer to sitting governors or national priorities
- The 19-percentage-point gap between Kalshi (27%) and Polymarket (8%) suggests significant disagreement among traders about Fishback's likelihood of receiving Trump's support

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/endorsefishback
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=endorsefishback
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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