# Will JD Vance endorse Spencer Pratt in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election before Jun 2, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 9% across 6 contracts — refreshed 19 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/endorsepratt
Updated: 2026-05-29T23:20:08.481Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-02

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 7¢ | −2pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-jd-vance-endorse-spencer-pratt-in-the-2026-lo-kalshi-kxendorsepratt-26jun02-jvan |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 10¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-jr-endorse-spencer-pratt-in-the-kalshi-kxendorsepratt-26jun02-dtjr |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 17¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorse-spencer-pratt-kalshi-kxendorsepratt-26jun02-mtg |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-endorse-spencer-pratt-in-kalshi-kxendorsepratt-26jun02-rfk |
| Steve Bannon | 9¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-steve-bannon-endorse-spencer-pratt-in-the-202-kalshi-kxendorsepratt-26jun02-sban |
| Tucker Carlson | 6¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tucker-carlson-endorse-spencer-pratt-in-the-2-kalshi-kxendorsepratt-26jun02-tcar |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 23 |
| 2026-05-15 | 46 |
| 2026-05-22 | 18 |
| 2026-05-29 | 12 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-22 · Marjorie Taylor Greene −10pp 37→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-26 · Steve Bannon −9pp 28→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-22 · Steve Bannon +6pp 22→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Marjorie Taylor Greene −4pp 24→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Steve Bannon −4pp 19→15¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the estimated likelihood that Vice President JD Vance will publicly endorse Spencer Pratt in Los Angeles's 2026 mayoral race before June 2, 2026. At 25%, the market suggests endorsement is possible but not the most probable outcome. The probability is driven by two main considerations: first, Vance's past tendency to engage with celebrity politics and non-traditional candidates, which could make such an endorsement conceivable; second, the short timeframe (roughly 3 weeks from today) and lack of any recent signals suggesting Vance is focusing on California local races, which reduces the likelihood of this specific event occurring. The resolution date of June 2 represents the election itself, making any endorsement in this period final and definitive. The current 25% level reflects genuine uncertainty about whether Vance would choose to weigh in on this particular race during such a compressed window.

### Key factors

- JD Vance has made no public statements about Spencer Pratt's mayoral candidacy as of mid-May 2026
- The endorsement window closes June 2, 2026 (approximately 21 days), limiting the time for Vance to engage
- Similar endorsement probabilities for Tucker Carlson (21¢) and Donald Trump Jr. (19¢) suggest low baseline expectation for any conservative political figure backing Pratt
- Spencer Pratt's campaign visibility and any direct solicitation of Vance's support would be required to materially shift this probability upward
- Marjorie Taylor Greene's contract (48¢) trades significantly higher, suggesting differential assessment of her likelihood to participate in local LA politics

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/endorsepratt
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=endorsepratt
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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