# England vs. Croatia

> England leads at 56%, runner-up 24% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/england-vs-croatia
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:05:41.449Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-01

## Headline

- Leader: England at 56%
- Runner-up: Draw (England vs. Croatia) at 24%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $60

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | 56¢ | +2pp | $20 | polymarket | /markets/england-vs-croatia-england-polymarket-0xb361c29b5481164886627cb175ed76792df30902e66ec329c0a3853f807fe8e9 |
| Draw (England vs. Croatia) | 24¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/england-vs-croatia-draw-england-vs-croatia-polymarket-0x7c200c3facd45c4307c4d52d47a7d0d86fe219ff25eba92ff88a674d974c4ec3 |
| Croatia | 20¢ | +1pp | $40 | polymarket | /markets/england-vs-croatia-croatia-polymarket-0x90b9d20ece132c342654f98e0826e972134b10f58d4789c2662bdc00eee44b13 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | England | Draw (England vs. Croatia) | Croatia |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 56 | 25 | 19 |
| 2026-05-01 | 57 | 24 | 20 |
| 2026-05-02 | 56 | 25 | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 58 | — | — |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 39% probability reflects current market expectations that England will win an upcoming match against Croatia. The probability sits below the 50% threshold, suggesting markets currently favor Croatia or view the match as competitive. England's win probability is influenced by team form, head-to-head history, player availability, and tactical matchups. The primary uncertainty will be resolved when the match is played; current betting activity shows moderate liquidity on England as favorite (54¢ on Kalshi), though some markets price Croatia's chances higher. The cross-venue gap of 3 percentage points between Kalshi and Polymarket indicates venues have slightly different crowd assessments of the matchup.

### Key factors

- England win contract trades at 54¢ on Kalshi versus lower prices on competing markets, indicating price divergence that traders may be evaluating
- Recent 24-hour volume of $265 on the England winner contract suggests active but not extreme market participation
- Polymarket's Croatia contract trades at 21¢, implying different implied win probability than the aggregated 39% England probability across venues
- Multiple draw contracts across related matches (Panama vs. England, Croatia vs. Ghana) trade at 25¢, suggesting uncertainty around broader tournament structure or match conditions
- The 3 percentage point gap between venues indicates material disagreement on match probability that hasn't been arbitraged away

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/england-vs-croatia
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=england-vs-croatia

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.