# England vs. Ghana

> England leads at 70%, runner-up 22% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/england-vs-ghana
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:26.474Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-23

## Headline

- Leader: England at 70%
- Runner-up: Draw (England vs. Ghana) at 22%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $24

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | 70¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/england-vs-ghana-england-polymarket-0xff1ec56e0e47033727e33deab740896fbf1c6bb8a2b0068efdba3d900c7ba7a2 |
| Draw (England vs. Ghana) | 22¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/england-vs-ghana-draw-england-vs-ghana-polymarket-0x17d821a9197f8de3acbb8a0140e70cea9461e95871c58ae7aa9c608d53ad00d0 |
| Ghana | 13¢ | ±0 | $24 | polymarket | /markets/england-vs-ghana-ghana-polymarket-0x66b7ad48448f8846395b8df8edb5f20f99bed8e79928b1b9d2cf3a19d70dbdf8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | England | Draw (England vs. Ghana) | Ghana |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 71 | 22 | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 72 | 22 | 15 |
| 2026-05-02 | 71 | 22 | 15 |
| 2026-05-09 | 70 | 21 | 12 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Draw (England vs. Ghana) −5pp 24→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Ghana −3pp 17→14¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 71% probability indicates that market participants assess England as the most likely winner in an England vs. Ghana matchup. The high confidence reflects England's historical ranking advantage and recent form, though the substantial 21% probability for the runner-up suggests meaningful uncertainty remains. Movement in this probability would likely track England's upcoming fixtures and team news—injuries to key players or unexpected results in warm-up matches could shift sentiment. Ghana's defensive record and England's conversion efficiency in recent competitions represent the primary variables affecting the outcome. The resolution depends on the actual match result, which would occur on the scheduled fixture date between these teams.

### Key factors

- England's FIFA ranking and recent competitive record compared to Ghana's
- Availability and fitness status of key England players in the weeks leading to the match
- Ghana's defensive performance metrics and goal-scoring efficiency in recent official competitions
- Venue location and any home-field advantage factors (if applicable to the fixture)
- Head-to-head historical results and tactical matchups between the two teams

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/england-vs-ghana
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=england-vs-ghana

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.