# English Premier League - Most Clean Sheets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 4% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/english-premier-league-most-clean-sheets
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.562Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-24

## Headline

- Probability: 4% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | 4¢ | −30pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/english-premier-league-most-clean-sheets-gianluigi-polymarket-0x7cef2d88114f0835ac54c3f3a59a836dbe28c13476c040d405da69d615e8f4ef |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | 19 |
| 2026-04-25 | 40 |
| 2026-05-02 | 33 |
| 2026-05-06 | 2 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Gianluigi Donnarumma −30pp 32→2¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Gianluigi Donnarumma −13pp 46→33¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market tracks which Premier League club will record the fewest goals conceded during the 2025-26 season. The 86% probability assigned to the leading outcome reflects strong confidence in a specific team's defensive capability based on current betting activity across multiple platforms. Market prices show Arsenal favored at 61-63% to win the league overall, while Man City trails at 39%, suggesting defensive strength may correlate with title contention. The gap between the clean sheets leader (86%) and runner-up (14%) indicates concentrated confidence rather than uncertainty. Key drivers include recent defensive performance data, injury status of key defenders, and tactical consistency. The season's final match day (May 2027) will definitively resolve the outcome by comparing total clean sheets across all clubs.

### Key factors

- Arsenal and Man City combined hold 100% of Premier League winner contracts, suggesting the clean sheets leader is one of these two clubs
- Arsenal's higher league-winner probability (61-63% vs Man City's 39%) may reflect superior defensive metrics entering 2025-26
- Clean sheets correlate with both defensive quality and team performance; a surprise mid-season injury to key defenders could shift probabilities
- Current 86%-14% split is more extreme than the 63%-39% division in league winner markets, suggesting the clean sheets market has stronger conviction or different information
- Season completion on May 2027 allows 12 months of performance data; significant tactical changes or managerial shifts mid-season would be primary catalysts

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/english-premier-league-most-clean-sheets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=english-premier-league-most-clean-sheets

## License

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