# EPL: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor)

> 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Tottenham Hotspur leads at 52%, runner-up 50% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/epl-17th-place-relegation-survivor
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:20:58.937Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Tottenham Hotspur at 52%
- Runner-up: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): West Ham United at 50%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $260

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Tottenham Hotspur | 52¢ | +2pp | $31 | polymarket | /markets/epl-17th-place-relegation-survivor-tottenham-hotsp-polymarket-0xb6ed6851f46c1e52c5925f0634aa2c251bd914b25532c3742b28704f6fbabb0b |
| 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): West Ham United | 50¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/epl-17th-place-relegation-survivor-west-ham-united-polymarket-0xcacdbb91106d606bc3eb9e2c21cb87f1c51c9a7f83b8a46f80590da2f9d6a777 |
| 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Nottingham Forest | 36¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/epl-17th-place-relegation-survivor-nottingham-fore-polymarket-0x5cd3d2a682667a88d8d625f7e6e4172c2f069a247e6742c79772f7f6d5b0520e |
| 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Crystal Palace | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/epl-17th-place-relegation-survivor-crystal-palace-polymarket-0xc86df683b4b14248106810141fba9ee1a0e2e9984aca7e0db77832a8230a2915 |
| 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Leeds United | 10¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/epl-17th-place-relegation-survivor-leeds-united-polymarket-0xea2e6c8f6bc6bde2ac448aa1146260bf82369cf8a5095461a8c642ed30bbe467 |
| 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Newcastle United | 5¢ | ±0 | $229 | polymarket | /markets/epl-17th-place-relegation-survivor-newcastle-unite-polymarket-0xe6ce8f48837e9dc2ce4f40a246552e834dbce06729c4c283b253b713e2a2fe3e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Tottenham Hotspur | 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): West Ham United | 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | — | 47 | — |
| 2026-04-24 | — | 48 | 35 |
| 2026-04-26 | — | 47 | — |
| 2026-04-27 | 45 | 47 | 36 |
| 2026-04-28 | 43 | 46 | 37 |
| 2026-04-30 | 42 | 47 | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 42 | 47 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 44 | 48 | — |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Newcastle United −17pp 22→5¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Leeds United +3pp 10→13¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 29% probability represents the collective assessment that Newcastle United finishes 17th in the English Premier League, which would trigger automatic relegation to the Championship. The market is pricing in Newcastle's mid-table positioning relative to the safety threshold, with key uncertainty around their injury situation, managerial decisions, and fixture difficulty through the end of the season. The relegation picture typically clarifies substantially in the final 10 matches (late April through May), when form inconsistencies become statistically significant and teams face their critical run-in. Leicester's promotion-chase performance and which mid-table clubs stumble most heavily down the stretch will directly influence whether Newcastle's current gap holds or tightens.

### Key factors

- Newcastle's current league position, recent 5-10 match form, and point differential relative to the 18th-place team
- Upcoming fixture difficulty and head-to-head matchups between Newcastle and other teams in direct relegation competition
- Injury status of key squad players and managerial changes or tactical shifts affecting performance consistency
- Historical volatility in final-season standings—whether Newcastle has pulled clear of the relegation zone or maintains a narrow buffer
- Comparative form trends of direct competitors fighting for the same 17th-place finish versus automatic relegation

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/epl-17th-place-relegation-survivor
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=epl-17th-place-relegation-survivor

## License

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