# EPL – Which Clubs Get Relegated

> West Ham leads at 35%, runner-up 32% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/epl-which-clubs-get-relegated
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.909Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-27

## Headline

- Leader: West Ham at 35%
- Runner-up: Tottenham at 32%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham | 35¢ | −1pp | $642 | polymarket | /markets/epl-which-clubs-get-relegated-west-ham-polymarket-0x017099b71b4754c6f7ee6e78492d138270294db1bc520d970eaab83192e12a39 |
| Tottenham | 32¢ | — | $2K | polymarket | /markets/epl-which-clubs-get-relegated-tottenham-polymarket-0xcf4e906f66624d33c81e310072d26528209ce544fe641fd2835607c0f1c63417 |
| Leeds | 19¢ | — | $1K | polymarket | /markets/epl-which-clubs-get-relegated-leeds-polymarket-0xd71f77a4e2b40e90370c53bb7766f7ede7ae8cbce7f66c619b818ddc8c345b4f |
| Nottm Forest | 13¢ | ±0 | $2K | polymarket | /markets/epl-which-clubs-get-relegated-nottm-forest-polymarket-0xd73eaca0ff89411ac245891bb437f47f02b576801203ef067b94916a982308e3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | West Ham | Leeds | Nottm Forest |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | — | 17 |
| 2026-04-10 | — | — | 15 |
| 2026-04-12 | 35 | 19 | 20 |
| 2026-04-13 | 33 | — | — |
| 2026-04-14 | 36 | — | — |
| 2026-04-15 | 35 | — | — |
| 2026-04-21 | — | — | 12 |
| 2026-04-22 | — | — | 12 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 31% probability reflects the market's assessment of the likelihood that at least one of three specific EPL clubs will be relegated at the end of the 2025-26 season. West Ham (35¢) and Tottenham (32¢) are priced highest among the tracked contracts, suggesting these clubs face the most perceived relegation risk. The probability is primarily driven by current league positions, points differentials from safety, and remaining fixture difficulty. As the season progresses through May and beyond, team performances in upcoming matches will directly influence these odds—wins improve survival chances while losses increase relegation risk. The resolution of this market will occur in late May 2026 when the final Premier League standings are determined and the three lowest-placed clubs are officially relegated.

### Key factors

- West Ham and Tottenham are individually priced between 32-35¢, indicating specific market concern about their survival prospects relative to other clubs
- Nottingham Forest trades at only 13¢ despite being tracked, suggesting the market assigns it substantially lower relegation risk than the top two contracts
- Current contract volume and pricing reflect betting activity through early May 2026, meaning this represents recent market sentiment rather than season-long consensus
- The aggregated 31% probability represents odds for at least one named club being relegated, not a probability distributed equally across all three
- Future repricing will depend on these clubs' actual match results, injury developments, and managerial decisions over the remaining fixtures before league conclusion

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/epl-which-clubs-get-relegated
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=epl-which-clubs-get-relegated

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.