# Will Liverpool finish in the top 2 in the 2026-27 EPL season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 46% across 20 contracts — refreshed 45 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/epltop
Updated: 2026-07-27T06:20:50.572Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-06-14

## Headline

- Probability: 46% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | 26¢ | −1pp | $640 | kalshi | /markets/will-tottenham-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-2026-27-kalshi-kxepltop-27top4-tot |
| Chelsea | 53¢ | ±0 | $252 | kalshi | /markets/will-chelsea-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-2026-27-ep-kalshi-kxepltop-27top4-cfc |
| Aston Villa | 80¢ | +14pp | $201 | kalshi | /markets/will-aston-villa-finish-in-the-top-half-in-the-202-kalshi-kxepltop-27tophalf-avl |
| Manchester United | 58¢ | +2pp | $159 | kalshi | /markets/will-manchester-united-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-kalshi-kxepltop-27top4-mun |
| Liverpool | 62¢ | ±0 | $133 | kalshi | /markets/will-liverpool-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-2026-27-kalshi-kxepltop-27top4-lfc |
| Liverpool | 35¢ | +15pp | $88 | kalshi | /markets/will-liverpool-finish-in-the-top-2-in-the-2026-27-kalshi-kxepltop-27top2-lfc |
| Manchester City | 29¢ | +9pp | $45 | kalshi | /markets/will-manchester-city-finish-in-the-top-2-in-the-20-kalshi-kxepltop-27top2-mci |
| Arsenal | 86¢ | +5pp | $39 | kalshi | /markets/will-arsenal-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-2026-27-ep-kalshi-kxepltop-27top4-ars |
| Sunderland | 22¢ | +7pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-sunderland-finish-in-the-top-half-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxepltop-27tophalf-sun |
| Tottenham | 71¢ | +1pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-tottenham-finish-in-the-top-half-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxepltop-27tophalf-tot |
| Aston Villa | 22¢ | −1pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-aston-villa-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-2026-2-kalshi-kxepltop-27top4-avl |
| Newcastle United | 8¢ | +2pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-newcastle-united-finish-in-the-top-4-in-the-2-kalshi-kxepltop-27top4-new |
| Bournemouth | 31¢ | +8pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-bournemouth-finish-in-the-top-half-in-the-202-kalshi-kxepltop-27tophalf-bou |
| Brentford | 40¢ | −3pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-brentford-finish-in-the-top-half-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxepltop-27tophalf-bre |
| Arsenal | 86¢ | −4pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-arsenal-finish-in-the-top-half-in-the-2026-27-kalshi-kxepltop-27tophalf-ars |
| Arsenal | 55¢ | +13pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-arsenal-finish-in-the-top-2-in-the-2026-27-ep-kalshi-kxepltop-27top2-ars |
| Tottenham | 11¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tottenham-finish-in-the-top-2-in-the-2026-27-kalshi-kxepltop-27top2-tot |
| Brighton | 51¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brighton-finish-in-the-top-half-in-the-2026-2-kalshi-kxepltop-27tophalf-bri |
| Chelsea | 75¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chelsea-finish-in-the-top-half-in-the-2026-27-kalshi-kxepltop-27tophalf-cfc |
| Coventry City | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-coventry-city-finish-in-the-top-half-in-the-2-kalshi-kxepltop-27tophalf-cov |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | 22 |
| 2026-07-13 | 47 |
| 2026-07-20 | 36 |
| 2026-07-27 | 40 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-24 · Bournemouth −38pp 52→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-26 · Arsenal +28pp 21→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-25 · Aston Villa −21pp 68→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-26 · Aston Villa +17pp 47→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-20 · Chelsea +16pp 30→46¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 31% probability reflects the market's assessment that Liverpool has less than a one-in-three chance of finishing in the top two of the English Premier League during the 2026-27 season. This relatively low probability suggests expectations of competitive pressure from multiple established rivals. The main drivers of this forecast are Liverpool's recent squad composition and managerial stability compared to historical performance, alongside the strength of competing clubs like Manchester City, Arsenal, and Chelsea. The probability would shift based on squad changes during the summer 2026 transfer window and performance indicators from the immediately preceding 2025-26 season. Resolution occurs in May 2027 when final league standings are confirmed. Notably, the market assigns 50% probability to Liverpool finishing in the top four, suggesting the gap between top-two and top-four finishes represents meaningful uncertainty about their competitive position.

### Key factors

- Liverpool's transfer activity and net squad investment in summer 2026 relative to direct competitors
- Final league position and points total achieved in 2025-26 season, particularly relative to current top-four rivals
- Managerial changes or player departures at Liverpool or rival clubs between now and season start
- Injuries to key players during pre-season or opening months of 2026-27 campaign
- Performance of Chelsea, Arsenal, and Manchester City in 2025-26, which would indicate competitive baseline for 2026-27

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/epltop
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=epltop

## License

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