# Everton at West Ham

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 57% across 10 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/epltotal
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:36:00.775Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-06-29

## Headline

- Probability: 57% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $179K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 73¢ | ±0 | $147K | kalshi | /markets/tottenham-at-aston-villa-totals-over-25-goals-scor-kalshi-kxepltotal-26may03avltot-2 |
| Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored | 45¢ | −2pp | $14K | kalshi | /markets/tottenham-at-aston-villa-totals-over-35-goals-scor-kalshi-kxepltotal-26may03avltot-3 |
| Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored | 93¢ | +1pp | $12K | kalshi | /markets/tottenham-at-aston-villa-totals-over-15-goals-scor-kalshi-kxepltotal-26may03avltot-1 |
| Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored | 24¢ | +1pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/tottenham-at-aston-villa-totals-over-45-goals-scor-kalshi-kxepltotal-26may03avltot-4 |
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 58¢ | +1pp | $554 | kalshi | /markets/manchester-city-at-everton-totals-over-25-goals-sc-kalshi-kxepltotal-26may04evemci-2 |
| Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored | 67¢ | ±0 | $4 | kalshi | /markets/chelsea-at-liverpool-totals-over-15-goals-scored-kalshi-kxepltotal-26may09lfccfc-1 |
| Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored | 79¢ | +7pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/nottingham-at-chelsea-totals-over-15-goals-scored-kalshi-kxepltotal-26may04cfcnfo-1 |
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 56¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/arsenal-at-west-ham-totals-over-25-goals-scored-kalshi-kxepltotal-26may10whuars-2 |
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 64¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/chelsea-at-liverpool-totals-over-25-goals-scored-kalshi-kxepltotal-26may09lfccfc-2 |
| Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored | 9¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/manchester-united-at-sunderland-totals-over-45-goa-kalshi-kxepltotal-26may09sunmun-4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | 33 |
| 2026-04-26 | 26 |
| 2026-05-03 | 34 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-26 · Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored −44pp 54→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored +43pp 15→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored +41pp 10→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored +34pp 41→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored −33pp 48→15¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 22% probability reflects the market's assessment that Everton will defeat West Ham in an upcoming match. The relatively low probability suggests traders view West Ham as favored or the match outcome as closely contested. Movement in this probability would depend on team form, injury status, and betting line shifts in traditional sportsbooks. The match result itself will resolve this contract when the fixture is played, likely within the next week or two based on typical Premier League scheduling. Key considerations include each team's recent performance, head-to-head record, home-field advantage, and any late-breaking roster changes.

### Key factors

- Everton's position in the league table and recent win-loss record relative to West Ham's current form
- Injury or suspension status of key players for either team ahead of kickoff
- Historical head-to-head performance between these sides, including home and away records
- Traditional sportsbook odds for the match and any significant line movement
- Whether the match is played at West Ham's or Everton's home ground, as home advantage affects outcome probability

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/epltotal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=epltotal

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.