# Epstein client list released by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 3% across 1 contract — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/epstein-client-list-released
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.169Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 3¢ | −2pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/epstein-client-list-released-by-june-30-polymarket-0xa08bf5e2acca8cf3f85209795cf278128a30869c5a8bfb97851e19fd21d0d21e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 19 |
| 2026-04-25 | 8 |
| 2026-04-30 | 5 |
| 2026-05-06 | 3 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 32% probability that the Epstein client list will be released by June 30, 2026. The contract reflects ongoing legal proceedings and public pressure for disclosure of names associated with Jeffrey Epstein, balanced against continued legal barriers and sealed documents. The wide 12-percentage-point gap between Kalshi (37%) and Polymarket (25%) suggests disagreement about timing and the likelihood of judicial action within this six-week window. Resolution hinges on court decisions, appeals, or legislative action rather than on a predetermined date. The low trading volume ($623 in 24 hours) indicates limited market participation, which typically reflects either low event salience or high uncertainty about near-term triggers.

### Key factors

- A federal judge must rule favorably on disclosure requests or an appeal must succeed within the next 28 days for this probability to materialize
- Recent sealed Epstein documents have faced ongoing legal challenges; the track record of successful unsealing attempts in the past 12 months would indicate momentum toward release
- Congressional or state legislative action could force disclosure, but no scheduled votes or legislative deadlines align with the June 30 resolution date
- The 12-percentage-point discrepancy between major venues suggests market participants weight the likelihood of judicial action differently, possibly due to different interpretations of recent court filings
- Low trading volume ($623/day) indicates this resolution date may be viewed as unlikely, with market interest concentrated on longer-dated or broader release scenarios

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/epstein-client-list-released
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=epstein-client-list-released

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.