# Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026

> Alec Baldwin leads at 96%, runner-up 75% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/epsteinlist
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:05:57.233Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Alec Baldwin at 96%
- Runner-up: Donald Trump at 75%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $227

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Baldwin | 96¢ | +10pp | $211 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents-released-in-kalshi-kxepsteinlist-27jan-abal |
| Donald Trump | 75¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents-released-in-kalshi-kxepsteinlist-27jan-djt |
| Woody Allen | 72¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents-released-in-kalshi-kxepsteinlist-27jan-wall |
| Bill Gates | 48¢ | +6pp | $8 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents-released-in-kalshi-kxepsteinlist-27jan-bgat |
| Kevin Spacey | 45¢ | +4pp | $8 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents-released-in-kalshi-kxepsteinlist-27jan-kspa |
| Bill Clinton | 44¢ | +15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents-released-in-kalshi-kxepsteinlist-27jan-bcli |
| Prince Andrew | 11¢ | −18pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents-released-in-kalshi-kxepsteinlist-27jan-pand |
| Kamala Harris | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents-released-in-kalshi-kxepsteinlist-27jan-khar |
| Barack Obama | 3¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents-released-in-kalshi-kxepsteinlist-27jan-boba |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Alec Baldwin | Donald Trump | Woody Allen |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 18 | 64 | 32 |
| 2026-04-17 | 33 | 69 | — |
| 2026-04-18 | 33 | — | — |
| 2026-04-22 | 12 | 83 | 74 |
| 2026-04-23 | 22 | 84 | 73 |
| 2026-04-27 | 25 | 74 | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 43 | 79 | 72 |
| 2026-05-03 | 61 | 75 | — |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · Kamala Harris +47pp 2→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Prince Andrew +47pp 6→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Kamala Harris −41pp 49→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Bill Clinton −29pp 55→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Bill Gates −27pp 56→29¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability estimates the likelihood that at least one individual will be named in the Epstein-related documents that the U.S. government has committed to releasing during 2026. The question hinges on both the scope and timing of document releases, as well as how broadly 'named' is interpreted. Currently, markets are split on this outcome, with Kalshi traders pricing it 14 percentage points higher than Polymarket participants, suggesting disagreement about release schedules and content. The main resolution driver will be the actual documents released through 2026, which are subject to court deadlines and potential extensions. Markets are closely tracking whether any material documents emerge before year-end and whether they contain identifiable allegations or associations beyond previously public information.

### Key factors

- Timing of court-ordered releases: Documents are subject to ongoing litigation with specific judicial deadlines that may be accelerated, delayed, or extended
- Definition of 'named': Whether the resolution criteria include any mention, direct allegation, business transaction, or only substantive criminal associations will significantly affect outcomes
- Content threshold: Markets diverge on whether documents must name individuals not previously identified in released materials or whether any naming satisfies the criteria
- Volume and redaction rates: Government redactions for national security or witness protection could substantially reduce the number of identifiable names in released documents
- Cross-venue probability gap of 14 percentage points suggests material uncertainty about either release likelihood or interpretation of resolution rules

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/epsteinlist
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=epsteinlist

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.