# Volendam at Heracles Almelo

> Closed. Final outcome: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored. Last odds frozen 10 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/eredivisietotal
Updated: 2026-05-04T06:20:20.581Z
Category: general
Status: resolved
Closes: 2026-05-17

## Headline

- Probability: 37% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $14K
- Resolved: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored | 21¢ | +1pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/enschede-at-alkmaar-totals-over-35-goals-scored-kalshi-kxeredivisietotal-26may03azatwe-3 |
| Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored | 71¢ | +3pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/ga-eagles-at-sparta-totals-over-35-goals-scored-kalshi-kxeredivisietotal-26may03spagae-3 |
| Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored | 26¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/enschede-at-alkmaar-totals-over-45-goals-scored-kalshi-kxeredivisietotal-26may03azatwe-4 |
| Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored | 29¢ | +3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/ga-eagles-at-sparta-totals-over-45-goals-scored-kalshi-kxeredivisietotal-26may03spagae-4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 30 |
| 2026-05-01 | 19 |
| 2026-05-02 | 31 |
| 2026-05-03 | 30 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored +3pp 35→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored +3pp 19→22¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/eredivisietotal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=eredivisietotal

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.