# Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.9%

> Closed. Last odds frozen 4 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/esgdpqoqf
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:51.380Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-25

## Headline

- Leader: Above 0.3% at 92%
- Runner-up: Above 0.2% at 92%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.3% | 92¢ | — | $99 | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-for-q1-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxesgdpqoqf-26jun25-t0.3 |
| Above 0.2% | 92¢ | −3pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-for-q1-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxesgdpqoqf-26jun25-t0.2 |
| Above 0.4% | 91¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-for-q1-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxesgdpqoqf-26jun25-t0.4 |
| Above 0.5% | 82¢ | +1pp | $276 | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-for-q1-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxesgdpqoqf-26jun25-t0.5 |
| Above 0.6% | 11¢ | −5pp | $851 | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-for-q1-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxesgdpqoqf-26jun25-t0.6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 0.3% | Above 0.2% | Above 0.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | — | 94 | — |
| 2026-06-10 | — | 95 | — |
| 2026-06-18 | — | 96 | 94 |
| 2026-06-19 | — | 97 | — |
| 2026-06-20 | — | 96 | 93 |
| 2026-06-22 | — | — | 94 |
| 2026-06-25 | 92 | 93 | 91 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Above 0.5% −6pp 88→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above 0.6% −5pp 17→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Above 0.5% −5pp 88→83¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Above 0.5% +3pp 83→86¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above 0.2% −3pp 96→93¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Spain's first-quarter 2026 quarter-over-quarter GDP growth will exceed 0.9%. The current 60% probability for the lower threshold (above 0.2%) suggests markets expect positive growth, but the sharp drop to 10% for the 0.6% threshold indicates significant uncertainty about whether growth will reach more robust levels. Spain's GDP growth depends on domestic consumption, eurozone demand, and monetary conditions. The consensus appears skeptical of very strong growth, positioning expectations in a modest positive range. The official Spanish GDP flash estimate release in late April or early May will definitively settle the outcome, providing actual quarterly growth data. Until then, forward-looking economic indicators and preliminary survey data remain the primary drivers of probability shifts.

### Key factors

- Spain's Q1 2026 preliminary GDP data has not yet been released; the flash estimate typically comes 30-45 days after quarter-end
- Market pricing suggests consensus expectations for growth between 0.2% and 0.6% quarterly, below the 0.9% threshold in the question headline
- Eurozone economic conditions, ECB policy stance, and Spanish labor market performance through March 2026 will mechanically determine actual growth
- The 10-fold probability gap between the 0.2% and 0.6% thresholds reveals acute disagreement about mid-range growth outcomes
- Trading volume has been zero in 24 hours, indicating low recent market interest and potentially stale pricing pending data release

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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