# Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 3.6%

> Above 2.2% leads at 97%, runner-up 96% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 11 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/esgdpyoyf
Updated: 2026-06-08T04:20:08.347Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-25

## Headline

- Leader: Above 2.2% at 97%
- Runner-up: Above 2.0% at 96%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.2% | 97¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-for-q1-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxesgdpyoyf-26jun25-t2.2 |
| Above 2.0% | 96¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-for-q1-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxesgdpyoyf-26jun25-t2.0 |
| Above 2.4% | 96¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-for-q1-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxesgdpyoyf-26jun25-t2.4 |
| Above 2.6% | 71¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-for-q1-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxesgdpyoyf-26jun25-t2.6 |
| Above 2.8% | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-for-q1-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxesgdpyoyf-26jun25-t2.8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 2.2% | Above 2.0% | Above 2.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 78 | 72 | 95 |
| 2026-05-23 | — | — | 92 |
| 2026-05-25 | 93 | 92 | — |
| 2026-05-29 | 94 | 95 | — |
| 2026-06-01 | 96 | — | 93 |
| 2026-06-04 | 96 | — | 96 |
| 2026-06-05 | — | 97 | — |
| 2026-06-06 | — | — | 96 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-05 · Above 2.6% −4pp 74→70¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that Spain's year-over-year GDP growth will exceed 3.6% when first reported for the first quarter of 2026. The relatively high 90% probability suggests confidence that Spain's economy will achieve above-trend growth. The main drivers are Spain's recent economic performance trajectory and labor market strength, which have supported consumer spending and business investment. A key downside factor would be any deterioration in eurozone demand or unexpected inflation that constrains monetary policy. The resolution depends on Spain's official GDP flash estimate for Q1 2026, typically released in late April or early May. The probability structure shows traders increasingly confident about higher growth thresholds, with 96% probability assigned to growth exceeding 2.6%, suggesting the market expects solid but not exceptional performance.

### Key factors

- Spain's labor market has shown resilience with declining unemployment, supporting household consumption patterns that typically drive quarterly growth
- The probability monotonically decreases at higher thresholds (96% at 2.6%, down to 90% at 3.6%), indicating diminishing confidence about exceeding the 3.6% target
- Q1 2026 data will be official government statistics subject to revision, meaning the flash estimate carries inherent measurement uncertainty
- Eurozone-wide economic conditions and interest rate policy will influence whether Spain achieves above-3.6% growth given its export dependence
- The 3.6% threshold represents roughly 1.5x the recent European average growth rate, making it a notably ambitious target for the region

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=esgdpyoyf
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

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