# Will Alex Palou win Best Driver award at the 2026 ESPYS

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 45% across 14 contracts — refreshed 43 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/espys
Updated: 2026-07-12T21:20:51.778Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-07-16

## Headline

- Probability: 45% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $8K

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | 92¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-knicks-win-best-team-award-at-the-20-kalshi-kxespys-26bt-new |
| Jalen Brunson | 89¢ | ±0 | $931 | kalshi | /markets/will-jalen-brunson-win-best-nba-player-award-at-th-kalshi-kxespys-26bnbap-jal |
| Drake Maye | 4¢ | −2pp | $766 | kalshi | /markets/will-drake-maye-win-best-breakthrough-athlete-awar-kalshi-kxespys-26bba-dra |
| Jalen Brunson | 80¢ | ±0 | $492 | kalshi | /markets/will-jalen-brunson-win-best-championship-performan-kalshi-kxespys-26bcp-jal |
| Shohei Ohtani | 9¢ | −1pp | $412 | kalshi | /markets/will-shohei-ohtani-win-best-athlete-mens-sports-aw-kalshi-kxespys-26bams-sho |
| Jalen Brunson | 59¢ | +4pp | $387 | kalshi | /markets/will-jalen-brunson-win-best-athlete-mens-sports-aw-kalshi-kxespys-26bams-jal |
| Terence Crawford | 26¢ | −1pp | $360 | kalshi | /markets/will-terence-crawford-win-best-fighter-award-at-th-kalshi-kxespys-26bufcf-ter |
| A’ja Wilson | 66¢ | −2pp | $334 | kalshi | /markets/will-aja-wilson-win-best-athlete-womens-sports-awa-kalshi-kxespys-26baws-aja |
| Caleb Williams Game Tying TD vs. Rams | 3¢ | +1pp | $333 | kalshi | /markets/will-caleb-williams-game-tying-td-vs-rams-win-best-kalshi-kxespys-26bp-cal |
| Connor Hellebuyck | 12¢ | −2pp | $283 | kalshi | /markets/will-connor-hellebuyck-win-best-championship-perfo-kalshi-kxespys-26bcp-con |
| Lionel Messi | 96¢ | +2pp | $199 | kalshi | /markets/will-lionel-messi-win-best-soccer-player-award-at-kalshi-kxespys-26bsp-lio |
| Lionel Messi | 21¢ | −7pp | $185 | kalshi | /markets/will-lionel-messi-win-best-athlete-mens-sports-awa-kalshi-kxespys-26bams-lio |
| Justin Gaethje | 69¢ | −1pp | $169 | kalshi | /markets/will-justin-gaethje-win-best-fighter-award-at-the-kalshi-kxespys-26bufcf-jus |
| Anthony Kim | 8¢ | +2pp | $38 | kalshi | /markets/will-anthony-kim-win-best-comeback-athlete-award-a-kalshi-kxespys-26bca-ant |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 21 |
| 2026-07-05 | 49 |
| 2026-07-11 | 60 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-06 · Jalen Brunson +10pp 37→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · Connor Hellebuyck −8pp 19→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · Lionel Messi −8pp 32→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-05 · Justin Gaethje −8pp 61→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · Justin Gaethje +8pp 57→65¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 22% probability indicates that roughly one in five forecast outcomes favor Alex Palou receiving the Best Driver award at the 2026 ESPYS ceremony. The relatively low odds reflect the competitive field of professional drivers across multiple racing series who could be considered for the honor. Key drivers of this probability include Palou's performance throughout the 2026 racing season, his visibility and media profile compared to other elite drivers, and historical voting patterns at the ESPYS, which often favor mainstream sports and athletes with significant achievements or narratives during the award year. The main resolution catalyst will be the ESPYS ceremony itself, typically held in July, where voting results determine the winner. Between now and that event, Palou's race results, championship standings, and any major victories or incidents will likely adjust market expectations upward or downward as new information emerges about his competitive standing relative to peers.

### Key factors

- Palou's position in the 2026 IndyCar championship standings and major race victories before the ESPYS voting period closes
- Comparison of Palou's public profile and media mentions to competing drivers from NASCAR, Formula 1, and other racing series eligible for the award
- Historical ESPYS voting patterns showing which racing drivers or driving categories have won Best Driver awards in previous years
- Volume and recent momentum of prediction market contracts for this specific award, which is low ($518 24h volume) compared to mainstream sports awards
- The date of the ESPYS ceremony and the cutoff for voting eligibility, which determines which 2026 racing events count toward this award

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/espys
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=espys

## License

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