# Will Hannes Hanso be the next President of Estonia before Jan 1, 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 27% across 3 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/estpres
Updated: 2026-08-10T07:20:51.527Z
Category: politics
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-08

## Headline

- Probability: 27% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $53

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ülle Madise | 73¢ | +5pp | $45 | kalshi | /markets/will-lle-madise-be-the-next-president-of-estonia-b-kalshi-kxestpres-27jan01-umad |
| Hannes Hanso | 3¢ | −1pp | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-hannes-hanso-be-the-next-president-of-estonia-kalshi-kxestpres-27jan01-hhan |
| Maive Rute | 5¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-maive-rute-be-the-next-president-of-estonia-b-kalshi-kxestpres-27jan01-mrut |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 25 |
| 2026-08-09 | 27 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-06 · Ülle Madise +8pp 59→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Maive Rute −6pp 12→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · Ülle Madise +5pp 67→72¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract reflects a 24% probability that Hannes Hanso will become Estonia's next president by January 1, 2027—roughly five months away. Hanso's current odds place him third among tracked candidates, behind Ülle Madise at 56% and ahead of Maive Rute at 11%. The probability is driven primarily by the timing constraint: Estonia's presidential election process typically involves parliamentary voting, and the compressed window means any transition must occur through expedited constitutional procedures or an extraordinary political shift. The main factor pushing odds lower is that Madise currently commands majority support in available contracts, suggesting broader consensus favors another candidate. Any major political realignment, parliamentary defections, or unexpected withdrawal by the leading candidate could meaningfully shift Hanso's probability. The key catalyst is the formal initiation of Estonia's presidential selection process and any parliamentary votes that would determine the successor.

### Key factors

- Ülle Madise holds 56% aggregate probability across markets, more than double Hanso's 24%, indicating significant consensus favoring an alternative candidate
- The timeframe ends January 1, 2027, leaving approximately five months for Estonia's presidential succession process to complete
- Parliamentary voting mechanisms in Estonia determine presidential selection, meaning legislative coalitions and political realignments are the primary mechanisms for changing outcomes
- Zero trading volume in the last 24 hours across all three tracked contracts suggests limited recent market activity or conviction shifts
- Hanso's current contract price of 4¢ reflects substantial discount to the leading candidate, indicating market participants assess other candidates as more probable choices

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/estpres
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=estpres

## License

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