# Ethereum all time high by ___

> Closed. Last odds frozen 14 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ethereum-all-time-high
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: crypto · Topic: bitcoin
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: December 31, 2026 at 6%
- Runner-up: September 30, 2026 at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $666

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 6¢ | ±0 | $550 | polymarket | /markets/ethereum-all-time-high-by-december-31-2026-polymarket-0x4ac1e1a9a61da989b9dfe246332309bd5e4a2284fd9d4998526fe6e38f6bfe8f |
| September 30, 2026 | 3¢ | −1pp | $116 | polymarket | /markets/ethereum-all-time-high-by-september-30-2026-polymarket-0x710ce15deba099608dd256df512394d11f8d02e5c38644cf88c9cf0752254d7f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | December 31, 2026 | September 30, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | — | 2 |
| 2026-05-22 | 10 | 3 |
| 2026-06-05 | 8 | — |
| 2026-06-07 | — | 3 |
| 2026-06-10 | 6 | — |
| 2026-06-16 | 6 | — |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This reflects the probability that Ethereum reaches a new all-time high by year-end 2026. The 13% probability suggests market participants view a substantial price advance as unlikely within the next seven months. The main factors shaping this view are Ethereum's current price level relative to its previous peak (set in November 2021 near $4,900), the broader cryptocurrency market momentum, and macroeconomic conditions affecting risk assets. Ethereum's performance typically correlates with Bitcoin's moves, though it has historically lagged during bull markets. The key uncertainty resolves on December 31, 2026, though interim price movements and regulatory developments could shift expectations throughout the year. Lower trading volume on Ethereum contracts compared to Bitcoin equivalents suggests fewer participants are positioned in these markets.

### Key factors

- Ethereum's current price compared to its November 2021 all-time high of approximately $4,891
- Bitcoin's momentum and ability to reach new highs, given Ethereum's historical correlation with Bitcoin during market cycles
- Regulatory developments affecting cryptocurrency markets, particularly regarding staking, smart contracts, and institutional adoption
- Total cryptocurrency market capitalization trends and macroeconomic conditions affecting broader risk-asset demand
- Sustained institutional inflows and on-chain activity metrics indicating genuine demand versus speculative price action

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ethereum-all-time-high
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ethereum-all-time-high
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/bitcoin

## License

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