# Ethiopia Parliamentary Election Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 94% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ethiopia-parliamentary-election-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.769Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Probability: 94% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prosperity | 94¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ethiopia-parliamentary-election-winner-prosperity-polymarket-0xba01b6ad2f090ea29936617f0209ad7f97ad73dd61bfc100632a61618f856801 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 94 |
| 2026-04-25 | 95 |
| 2026-05-02 | 95 |
| 2026-05-07 | 97 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 37% probability reflects market expectations that a particular political party will secure the largest number of seats in Ethiopia's next parliamentary election. The current level suggests meaningful uncertainty about the outcome, with multiple parties viewed as competitive. The probability is likely driven by recent polling data, political coalition dynamics, and assessments of incumbent strength versus opposition momentum. The primary catalyst that would shift this probability significantly would be the actual holding of the election itself, which would provide definitive results. Until then, major changes in voter sentiment, coalition arrangements, or security conditions affecting campaign activity could move expectations materially.

### Key factors

- Current polling data and sample sizes showing support levels for the leading party and major competitors
- Status of pre-election coalition negotiations and whether opposition parties unite or compete separately
- Security situation and election administration capacity in regions where the outcome will be decided
- Turnout projections and demographic shifts since the previous parliamentary election
- Recent political events or scandals affecting public perception of the incumbent party or main opposition challengers

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ethiopia-parliamentary-election-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ethiopia-parliamentary-election-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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