# Will ETH trimmed mean be above $3000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 8 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ethmaxmon-eth
Updated: 2026-07-01T07:20:51.289Z
Category: crypto · Topic: bitcoin
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-07-01

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $2,500.00 | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-eth-trimmed-mean-be-above-250000-by-1159-pm-e-kalshi-kxethmaxmon-eth-26jun30-250000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | 3 |
| 2026-06-25 | 1 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract prices the probability that Ethereum's trimmed mean price will exceed $3,000 by April 30, 2026. The 71% probability reflects market confidence in moderate Ethereum appreciation over the next 11 months. The level is primarily driven by two competing forces: bullish factors including institutional adoption trends and Ethereum's historical volatility, which could push prices higher, versus bearish pressure from macroeconomic conditions and regulatory uncertainty that could suppress gains. The key resolution point will be the actual trimmed-mean price calculation on April 30, 2026, which aggregates prices across major exchanges to establish the official settlement value. Between now and that date, significant catalysts include major protocol upgrades, changes in U.S. crypto regulation, shifts in institutional investment flows, and movements in Bitcoin prices, which typically correlate with Ethereum's direction.

### Key factors

- ETH trading at approximately $1,800–$2,200 as of May 2026 would require roughly 40–65% appreciation to reach $3,000, a substantial but historically plausible move
- The highest-volume contract ($2,500 threshold) trades at 72¢, indicating traders assign 72% probability to a more modest target, suggesting diminishing confidence at each higher price level
- Regulatory announcements from the SEC, CFTC, or international regulators in the next 6–12 months would materially affect institutional investment appetite and volatility assumptions
- Trimmed-mean methodology removes outliers across major exchanges, making manipulation harder but also reducing single-exchange price events from affecting settlement
- No major Ethereum network upgrade or catalyst event is currently scheduled between May 2026 and April 30, 2026, shifting focus to broader market conditions and macro trends

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ethmaxmon-eth
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/bitcoin

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