# Will ETH trimmed mean be below $2000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026

> Below $2,000.00 leads at 22%, runner-up 8% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ethminmon-eth
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.724Z
Category: crypto · Topic: bitcoin
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Leader: Below $2,000.00 at 22%
- Runner-up: Below $1,750.00 at 8%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below $2,000.00 | 22¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-eth-trimmed-mean-be-below-200000-by-1159-pm-e-kalshi-kxethminmon-eth-26may31-200000 |
| Below $1,750.00 | 8¢ | −1pp | $28 | kalshi | /markets/will-eth-trimmed-mean-be-below-175000-by-1159-pm-e-kalshi-kxethminmon-eth-26may31-175000 |
| Below $1,500.00 | 4¢ | −1pp | $112 | kalshi | /markets/will-eth-trimmed-mean-be-below-150000-by-1159-pm-e-kalshi-kxethminmon-eth-26may31-150000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Below $2,000.00 | Below $1,750.00 | Below $1,500.00 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 39 | 12 | 3 |
| 2026-05-02 | 32 | 7 | 2 |
| 2026-05-06 | 21 | 6 | 2 |
| 2026-05-07 | 28 | 8 | 3 |
| 2026-05-08 | 30 | 7 | 2 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Below $2,000.00 −12pp 33→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Below $2,000.00 −7pp 39→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Below $2,000.00 +7pp 21→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Below $1,750.00 −5pp 12→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market prices the probability that Ethereum's trimmed mean price will fall below $2,000 by May 31, 2026—roughly 29 days away. At 24%, the market implies strong confidence ETH will remain above this level through month-end. The current price level, recent volatility patterns, and macroeconomic conditions over the next month are the primary drivers. Related markets show traders assign much higher probability to ETH staying above $2,500 (55% implied), suggesting the $2,000 threshold is viewed as a more extreme downside scenario. Key catalysts include major cryptocurrency exchange flows, regulatory announcements, and broader equity market movements, though no single scheduled event dominates the resolution period. The market reflects elevated confidence in ETH holding above $2,000 but acknowledges tail-risk scenarios of sharp decline remain possible.

### Key factors

- ETH is trading significantly above $2,000, requiring a 60%+ price decline to resolve yes—a substantial single-month move
- Related contracts show 55% probability of ETH staying above $2,500, indicating markets price $2,000 as an extreme downside scenario
- No major protocol upgrade, regulatory decision, or scheduled economic event anchors this resolution period uniquely
- Cryptocurrency volatility patterns and macro risk sentiment over the next 29 days will be primary determinants of directional pressure
- Order book depth and liquidation cascades during volatile moves would influence whether sharp declines occur

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ethminmon-eth
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ethminmon-eth
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/bitcoin

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