# Will Ethereum reach below $750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET

> Below $1,500.00 leads at 81%, runner-up 59% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 57 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ethminy
Updated: 2026-06-19T11:20:19.593Z
Category: crypto · Topic: bitcoin
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Below $1,500.00 at 81%
- Runner-up: Below $1,250.00 at 59%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,500.00 | 81¢ | +3pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-ethereum-reach-below-150000-by-jan-1-2027-at-kalshi-kxethminy-27jan01-1500 |
| Below $1,250.00 | 59¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-ethereum-reach-below-125000-by-jan-1-2027-at-kalshi-kxethminy-27jan01-1250 |
| Below $1,000.00 | 27¢ | ±0 | $365 | kalshi | /markets/will-ethereum-reach-below-100000-by-jan-1-2027-at-kalshi-kxethminy-27jan01-1000 |
| Below $750.00 | 18¢ | +3pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-ethereum-reach-below-75000-by-jan-1-2027-at-1-kalshi-kxethminy-27jan01-750 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Below $1,500.00 | Below $1,250.00 | Below $1,000.00 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 47 | 42 | 19 |
| 2026-06-05 | 85 | 61 | 34 |
| 2026-06-12 | — | 59 | 28 |
| 2026-06-13 | 79 | 57 | 28 |
| 2026-06-18 | 77 | 54 | 25 |
| 2026-06-19 | 80 | — | 25 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-15 · Below $1,500.00 −11pp 80→69¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-13 · Below $1,500.00 −7pp 86→79¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-15 · Below $1,250.00 −6pp 58→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-15 · Below $1,000.00 −5pp 30→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-17 · Below $1,500.00 +4pp 71→75¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 29% chance that Ethereum's price will fall below $750 by year-end 2026, about eight months from now. The probability reflects traders' assessment that such a severe decline—roughly 60% down from current levels—is unlikely but possible. Major factors influencing this view include macroeconomic conditions affecting risk assets, regulatory developments around cryptocurrency, and Ethereum's technical fundamentals. The broader crypto market direction, particularly Bitcoin's performance, typically correlates with Ethereum movements. Key catalysts that could shift this probability include major regulatory announcements, significant network disruptions, substantial shifts in institutional adoption, or broad equity market stress that triggers a flight from risk assets. The low trading volume on this specific contract ($924 in 24 hours) suggests limited conviction among traders at current prices.

### Key factors

- Ethereum's current price relative to $750 represents a ~60% decline threshold; current market price and recent volatility trends directly affect probability estimates
- Bitcoin's price trajectory typically leads Ethereum movements; the 52¢ price on Bitcoin below $60k by year-end suggests moderate tail-risk pricing across crypto assets
- Related Ethereum contracts show traders pricing a 35¢ probability for below $1,250 by year-end, indicating a distribution of downside scenarios across different price levels
- Macro conditions including inflation data, interest rate decisions, and equity market performance between May 2026 and January 2027 will substantially influence risk-asset demand
- Regulatory announcements or enforcement actions against Ethereum or major exchanges could rapidly shift market expectations for extreme downside scenarios

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ethminy
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ethminy
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/bitcoin

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.