# ETH price on Jan 1, 2027

> 1,250 to 1,499.99 leads at 11%, runner-up 9% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ethy
Updated: 2026-06-19T13:20:18.589Z
Category: crypto
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: 1,250 to 1,499.99 at 11%
- Runner-up: 1,750 to 1,999.99 at 9%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $180

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,250 to 1,499.99 | 11¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/eth-price-on-jan-1-2027-1250-to-149999-kalshi-kxethy-27jan0100-b1375 |
| 1,750 to 1,999.99 | 9¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/eth-price-on-jan-1-2027-1750-to-199999-kalshi-kxethy-27jan0100-b1875 |
| 1,500 to 1,749.99 | 8¢ | ±0 | $135 | kalshi | /markets/eth-price-on-jan-1-2027-1500-to-174999-kalshi-kxethy-27jan0100-b1625 |
| 1,000 to 1,249.99 | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/eth-price-on-jan-1-2027-1000-to-124999-kalshi-kxethy-27jan0100-b1125 |
| 2,250 to 2,499.99 | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/eth-price-on-jan-1-2027-2250-to-249999-kalshi-kxethy-27jan0100-b2375 |
| 999.99 or below | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/eth-price-on-jan-1-2027-99999-or-below-kalshi-kxethy-27jan0100-t1000.00 |
| 2,000 to 2,249.99 | 4¢ | ±0 | $43 | kalshi | /markets/eth-price-on-jan-1-2027-2000-to-224999-kalshi-kxethy-27jan0100-b2125 |
| 5,000 or above | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/eth-price-on-jan-1-2027-5000-or-above-kalshi-kxethy-27jan0100-t4999.99 |
| 2,750 to 2,999.99 | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/eth-price-on-jan-1-2027-2750-to-299999-kalshi-kxethy-27jan0100-b2875 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 1,250 to 1,499.99 | 1,750 to 1,999.99 | 1,500 to 1,749.99 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | — | 5 | 3 |
| 2026-06-03 | 6 | 8 | 8 |
| 2026-06-05 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| 2026-06-12 | 12 | 7 | 8 |
| 2026-06-17 | 11 | — | — |
| 2026-06-18 | — | 9 | 9 |
| 2026-06-19 | — | — | 9 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-16 · 2,000 to 2,249.99 −3pp 8→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 9% probability reflects that traders across multiple derivative platforms assess the probability of Ethereum trading between $2,125 and $2,249.99 on January 1, 2027 as relatively low. This outcome sits in the lower-to-middle range of possible price scenarios traders are pricing in. The estimate is driven primarily by current ETH price levels and historical volatility patterns; upward movement would require sustained bullish momentum over the next seven months, while a decline would expand the likelihood of lower price bands. Actual ETH price movement through year-end 2026 will be the determining factor, with macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and cryptocurrency market sentiment serving as the primary variables shaping whether this specific price band is reached.

### Key factors

- The leading contract represents 9 cents per dollar, indicating asymmetric probability mass across twelve price bands rather than a 50/50 scenario
- Volume concentration ($4.8k-$4.7k) in the $70k-$79,999 BTC price ranges suggests traders expect broader crypto strength, which historically correlates with ETH outperformance
- Seven-month time horizon to resolution (Jan 1, 2027) allows for multiple policy changes, market cycles, and macroeconomic shifts that materially affect cryptocurrency valuations
- Current ETH price relative to the $2,125-$2,249.99 band determines whether the band represents appreciation, depreciation, or sideways movement from today's level
- The runner-up contract at 8% indicates tight probability clustering across adjacent outcomes, suggesting high uncertainty in final price discovery

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ethy
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ethy

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.