# Will Panathinaikos BC win the 2025-26 EuroLeague Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 22% across 6 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/euroleague
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.995Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-15

## Headline

- Probability: 22% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 15% / Polymarket 23% — 8pp spread
- 24h volume: $502

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: Panathinaikos | 22¢ | ±0 | $221 | polymarket | /markets/2026-euroleague-winner-panathinaikos-polymarket-0xe69e925a948310371b5fb879383871feac13db27b5c0a1c6ebf27b5b2164054a |
| Winner: Fenerbahçe Beko | 26¢ | −1pp | $166 | polymarket | /markets/2026-euroleague-winner-fenerbahe-beko-polymarket-0xc1b3e206d25e24a086d34026b044a1d480abf62f38d53b469b9ba9ef71a14ec5 |
| Winner: Valencia Basket | 9¢ | −3pp | $113 | polymarket | /markets/2026-euroleague-winner-valencia-basket-polymarket-0x8271a358c8824599f7dbfa302fb18725fda4b387c99e4d59eb0281b8d333b5b8 |
| Winner: Olympiacos | 37¢ | +4pp | $2 | polymarket | /markets/2026-euroleague-winner-olympiacos-polymarket-0x2a8cf18614b88c6312a83f4c734b095863e37436d5edf29ff206432379158081 |
| Real Madrid | 15¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-madrid-win-the-2025-26-euroleague-champi-kalshi-kxeuroleague-26-rma |
| Winner: Real Madrid | 21¢ | +6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2026-euroleague-winner-real-madrid-polymarket-0x4bd92aa403a426542752bfe9042bb98b2c7a148e66ba7fcf2903f9480dc84c0e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | 5 |
| 2026-04-25 | 21 |
| 2026-05-02 | 19 |
| 2026-05-08 | 24 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Winner: Olympiacos −13pp 40→27¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Panathinaikos +10pp 18→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Winner: Panathinaikos −9pp 27→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Fenerbahçe Beko +8pp 14→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Winner: Real Madrid +6pp 16→22¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents a 19% probability that Panathinaikos BC wins the 2025-26 EuroLeague Championship, the top European professional basketball competition. The probability reflects typical long-shot odds for a team competing in a league with 18 teams, where consistent championship contention requires sustained roster quality and performance. Panathinaikos would need to finish as a top seed in regular season play, then advance through multiple playoff rounds against established contenders. Key drivers of this probability include the team's current roster composition relative to competitors, recent season performance trends, and whether significant roster changes occurred in the offseason. The championship will be decided when the EuroLeague Finals conclude, likely in June 2026, with the regular season and playoff outcomes providing incremental clarity on Panathinaikos's trajectory throughout the 2025-26 campaign.

### Key factors

- Panathinaikos's regular season win-loss record compared to historical performance and competing EuroLeague teams
- Roster changes made during the 2025 offseason, particularly acquisitions or departures of key players
- Head-to-head performance against traditional championship contenders during the regular season
- Panathinaikos's injury record and bench depth availability entering critical playoff stages
- EuroLeague playoff seeding and draw positioning, which determines matchup difficulty in knockout rounds

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/euroleague
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=euroleague

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.