# Who will win Eurovision 2026?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 92% across 2 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/eurovision-2026
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:07.581Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-02

## Headline

- Probability: 92% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $51

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles D | 94¢ | ±0 | $51 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-d-be-the-2026-nl-west-division-wi-kalshi-kxmlbnlwest-26-lad |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 90¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-delcy-rodrguez-de-facto-hold-head-of-state-of-kalshi-kxvenezdefacto-27jan01-drod |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 88 |
| 2026-05-25 | 89 |
| 2026-06-01 | 91 |
| 2026-06-08 | 94 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-03 · Los Angeles D +3pp 89→92¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/eurovision-2026
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=eurovision-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.